Yeah, yeah, Roger, June 2016 polls, sardonic exclamation point borrowed from Jeb, you already posted that.
Her! June lead was actually down 4% from Her! March 2016 lead. Biden's June lead is 4% higher than his March lead. Other than that, the comparison is apt.
Hillary!'s leads were up and down and up and down, and occasionally weren't leads at all. Joe Biden's lead has been utterly unlike that. It's been metronomically steady, until recently when it started to slightly incline like a treacherous ramp.
In total, Hillary! Clinton! was above 49% for less than three weeks of the 2016 campaign. Biden has been above 49% for all but three weeks of the 2020 campaign... when he plunged into the mid-48's.
You should take your alleged fifty dollars and put it into the British betting markets, now that their odds on Trump's reelection have become longer and more remunerative. Because Joe Biden's also winning the betting markets now, too.
"You should take your alleged fifty dollars and put it into the British betting markets, now that their odds on Trump's reelection have become longer and more remunerative. Because Joe Biden's also winning the betting markets now, too."
IOW--No, I won't actually put my money where my big mouth is. I prefer the role of annoying child, spouting the same poll nonsense every day. And, when Trump wins in November, I'll disappear for a while, only to return with the same juvenile crap a couple of months later.
New York Times, July 1988: "Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll"
"Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points."
17 points! There's NO way Bush can come back from that deficit.
Wow. You only recently got your teeth kicked in, by overestimating one Gallup poll that was over-celebrated on the conservosphere because it had Trump's approval finally breaking even. Woo hoo? That was pretty pitiful, even before the approval ratio evaporated as quickly as it came.
So now it's not about Trump's awful numbers, it's "But wait, there was this OTHER single Gallup poll from just 32 years ago."
Yes indeed, your dream scenario of Democratic polls suddenly disintegrating could easily come true. All Donald Trump has to do is what Bush did to Dukakis: successfully define his obscure, little-known opponent, Joe Biden.
Also, race-baiting worked in 1988, and would definitely be a real vote-getter again in 2020.
And it would be a lot easier if Trump's upcoming resurgence was merely reclaiming his own double-digit polling lead over Biden from March. You know, the same double-digit lead that George HW Bush had in March 1988.
Bush had one small advantage of his own, in that he didn't fuck up a pandemic with his insanity and lies and incompetence and unemployment didn't hit 20% and he wasn't impeached and he didn't choose the Confederacy and he never shot and tear gassed American citizens. But that one detail will be forgotten by November.
Good find on the Dukakis peak. I don't know when I'll be able to sleep again.
10 comments:
Speaking of imminent cancellations, Donald’s morning ouch:
Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 38%
Michigan: Biden 55%, Trump 39%
Florida: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
New Mexico: Biden 53%, Trump 39%
I remember Hillary! having similar June numbers; only the final score matters.
What'd I say dollarwise last time on the bet? Maybe $50 is more your taste / budget.
Yeah, yeah, Roger, June 2016 polls, sardonic exclamation point borrowed from Jeb, you already posted that.
Her! June lead was actually down 4% from Her! March 2016 lead. Biden's June lead is 4% higher than his March lead. Other than that, the comparison is apt.
Hillary!'s leads were up and down and up and down, and occasionally weren't leads at all. Joe Biden's lead has been utterly unlike that. It's been metronomically steady, until recently when it started to slightly incline like a treacherous ramp.
In total, Hillary! Clinton! was above 49% for less than three weeks of the 2016 campaign. Biden has been above 49% for all but three weeks of the 2020 campaign... when he plunged into the mid-48's.
You should take your alleged fifty dollars and put it into the British betting markets, now that their odds on Trump's reelection have become longer and more remunerative. Because Joe Biden's also winning the betting markets now, too.
"You should take your alleged fifty dollars and put it into the British betting markets, now that their odds on Trump's reelection have become longer and more remunerative. Because Joe Biden's also winning the betting markets now, too."
IOW--No, I won't actually put my money where my big mouth is. I prefer the role of annoying child, spouting the same poll nonsense every day. And, when Trump wins in November, I'll disappear for a while, only to return with the same juvenile crap a couple of months later.
New York Times, July 1988: "Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll"
"Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points."
17 points! There's NO way Bush can come back from that deficit.
Wow. You only recently got your teeth kicked in, by overestimating one Gallup poll that was over-celebrated on the conservosphere because it had Trump's approval finally breaking even. Woo hoo? That was pretty pitiful, even before the approval ratio evaporated as quickly as it came.
So now it's not about Trump's awful numbers, it's "But wait, there was this OTHER single Gallup poll from just 32 years ago."
Yes indeed, your dream scenario of Democratic polls suddenly disintegrating could easily come true. All Donald Trump has to do is what Bush did to Dukakis: successfully define his obscure, little-known opponent, Joe Biden.
Also, race-baiting worked in 1988, and would definitely be a real vote-getter again in 2020.
And it would be a lot easier if Trump's upcoming resurgence was merely reclaiming his own double-digit polling lead over Biden from March. You know, the same double-digit lead that George HW Bush had in March 1988.
Bush had one small advantage of his own, in that he didn't fuck up a pandemic with his insanity and lies and incompetence and unemployment didn't hit 20% and he wasn't impeached and he didn't choose the Confederacy and he never shot and tear gassed American citizens. But that one detail will be forgotten by November.
Good find on the Dukakis peak. I don't know when I'll be able to sleep again.
Since you guys are so triggered by the polls, I won't post any more polls. Today.
Instead... Joe Biden raised $81 million in May.
And ActBlue raised $178 million in May.
A quarter-billion dollar month here, a quarter-billion dollar month there, and eventually it starts to add up.
^^^ it was spam.
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