Friday, June 24, 2016

The other side of the Brexit story

I stumbled across this really good explanation by an (apparent) Brit explaining how the Leave campaign interpreted their mistreatment by the EU.

Extra fun - Frexit, Itexit, and Nexit are boring.  These are better: "Campaign names of other countries leaving the EU."


Breaksit said...

What I found interesting is that throughout the entire campaign, the prediction markets showed "Remain" with a clear probability of winning. This outcome was consistently indicated - until a certain proportion of the actual referendum results had trickled in, at which point these markets pointed decisively and correctly to a win for "Leave".

Chalk up another success for the omniscient prediction markets.

Eric said...

Yeah, I was surprised by that too, because usually those prediction markets (where real money is on the line) are more accurate than the polls.
Right before the vote, the odds were 3-1 for "Remain" and I thought that was WAY high. I wish I knew a British bookie.

Breaksit said...

I saw it speculated that the prediction market participants tended heavily to be elitist establishment types. Since we appear to be entering a rather bad era for such people, and since they seem to have a lack of other- and self-awareness, it may not be surprising that their take on the situation was echo-chamberish and wrong.