Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Snow crash

At the rate this week is going, I would not be surprised if Bin Laden rose from the dead to engineer a hostile takeover of General Motors.

Zero Hedge: "GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations."  "Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine, because even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!"

The Federalist: "The economy tanked last quarter and it's everybody's fault but Obama's."  Duh!  Tell me something I don't know.  Currently the chief culprit is this period of declined temperatures some are calling "winter."

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

[i]Currently the chief culprit is this period of declined temperatures some are calling "winter."[/i]

A day later, financial markets here and abroad are believing it's an anomaly. Dow Jones down 0.1%. NASDAQ down 0.02%. They're not reacting like they did in 2008-09. They're not even reacting the way they did during the GOP shutdown.

[i] don't know said...

A day later, financial markets here and abroad are believing it's an anomaly. Dow Jones down 0.1%. NASDAQ down 0.02%.

Translation: "Economic contraction? What economic contraction? Viva Obama!"

The indignant hand of the market said...

Translation: "Why won't the stupid free market hate Obama as much as I do? It was so much more fun a few years ago, when we were saying "Tee hee, notice that whenever Obama speaks, the stock market drops?"

+8,500 later, citing the Dow as Obamabait isn't nearly as pleasurable.

Friday Update: NASDAQ up 0.4%, Dow down 0.03%, as the poor first quarter GDP numbers continue to send huge shock waves throughout the financial community.

Anomalous anomaly said...

"So the first quarter 3% contraction was the biggest ever recorded for a quarter since the statistic has been kept. So what? It's not as if it's a Republican administration, in which case there would be hell to pay. Behold as we Democrats sink to shamelessly worshiping the stock market because we imagine it validates us!"

Amnesiac anomaly said...

"So the first quarter 3% contraction was the biggest ever recorded for a quarter since the statistic has been kept. So what?"

Q3, 2008: -3.7%
Q4, 2008: -8.9%
Q1, 2009: -5.4%

To be fair, you're not alone. A whole lot of conservatives have rebooted the start of history to 2009.

Nearer, my stock market, to thee said...

Sorry, I should have noted that it is the biggest for a non-recessionary period. But what does it matter, since the contraction was the result of some sinister little Easter egg that Bush inserted in the economy before he left, in order to sabotage the Lightbringer.

But take heart, Bush didn't succeed in reigniting the recession - the stock market tells us so from on high! However, in your desperate rush to worship it, you forgot (or never knew), that the market stinks as an economic forecaster. But that doesn't matter if it's behaving in a way that gives you cover.

That was then, this is Dow said...

As mentioned, conservatives used to think that the stock market was a fantastic reflection of Obama and the economy, way back in 2009-2011 whenever "Obama spoke, and the market dropped." Since then, not so much. And definitely not this week.

But what does it matter, since the contraction was the result of some sinister little Easter egg that Bush inserted in the economy before he left, in order to sabotage the Lightbringer.

To quote a great thinker from an adjoining thread, "That's why he's surrounded by teleprompters and an army of straw men."

But take heart, Bush didn't succeed in reigniting the recession - the stock market tells us so from on high!

To quote a great thinker from an adjoining thread, "That's why he's surrounded by teleprompters and an army of straw men."

However, in your desperate rush to worship it,

To quote a great thinker from an adjoining thread, "That's why he's surrounded by teleprompters and an army of straw men."

you forgot (or never knew),

To quote a great thinker from an adjoining thread, "That's why he's surrounded by teleprompters and an army of straw men."

the market stinks as an economic forecaster. But that doesn't matter if it's behaving in a way that gives you cover.

To quote a great thinker from an adjoining thread, "That's why he's surrounded by teleprompters and an army of straw men."


Nobody's saying the stock market = the U.S. economy. Nobody's saying the quarterly numbers weren't rotten. But some people ARE saying "The economy tanked and it's everybody's fault but Obama's," "Good luck department of truth propaganda machine," "Nearer, my stock market, to thee" and "Economic contraction? What economic contraction? Viva Obama!" Those people are silly, and investors know it.

Again, you're just having a small tantrum because the worldwide financial markets won't hate Obama as much as you do.

If anybody knows "silly," it's investors said...

"Nobody's saying the stock market = the U.S. economy. Nobody's saying the quarterly numbers weren't rotten."

Whew! what a relief, because this is the exact opposite of what you seemed to be saying. Now, can you take it one step further and surrender any idea that investors or the market "know" anything about the future, or that they have some imagined authority to declare something an "anomaly"?

To help you in this final step, I'll just leave you with this enlightening list of the worst 25 quarters in the history of GDP data.

Let's begin with the final step said...

["Rawhide" music plays]
Trollin', trollin', trollin'...

Whew! what a relief, because this is the exact opposite of what you seemed to be saying.

No, it isn't. And you didn’t think it was.

I’ve been taunting your side’s insincerity and inconsistency. The stock market’s response counted a lot when it was supposedly “reacting” to Obama speeches, yet its movements tell us zero this week. The financial community’s projections count a lot if the U.S. gets downgraded or a quarterly GDP tanks... but only if its consensus is bad. If it's not, and it's 2009 or later, then those dumbheads don’t know nothin’ about nothin’.

As for that chart you linked, it makes the case that the last quarterly GDP number IS an anomaly. Just like so many non-Obama partisans are guessing.

Also, there’s no way of knowing how “enlightening” the singular event on that chart is, or isn't, until the next quarter. Two consecutive quarters of data are required.

But waiting is soooo boring. Who needs “some imagined authority” to tell us what we already know? You know, besides the actual people investing actual money, as opposed to the usual gang blowing smoke online.

What do those morons think? Monday Update: Dow down 0.1%, NASDAQ up 0.2%.

[Sigh] said...

"As for that chart you linked, it makes the case that the last quarterly GDP number IS an anomaly."

There are actually layers of stupid in that statement. Particularly when you combine it in the next breath with:

" ...there’s no way of knowing how “enlightening” the singular event on that chart is, or isn't, until the next quarter."

But more importantly, please stop torturing me with your daily updates of the market. The agony of your righteous, avenging truth is excruciating! Stop!

Sigh-onara said...

Let's unpeel those layers of stupid, stupid.

EITHER the recent GDP drop will turn out to be the only such number on that list of 25 negative quarterly results, in which case it IS an anomaly...

...OR the next quarterly report will show a second consecutive loss, which will retroactively wipe out not just the "outlier" tag, but also its status as the worst non-recessionary result "ever recorded for a quarter since the statistic has been kept." It’ll be the 17th-worst regular old drop.

You see how that works? EITHER it's wrong now to mock Wall Street and the White House for daring to label it as an anomaly. OR it will be wrong in three months to have chortled about the loss being the biggest contraction in a non-recessionary period. It can’t be both.

Yes, there’s a contradiction there. But it wasn’t introduced by me.

In fact, if the next quarter does NOT show a loss, one of the factors in avoiding an official recession will have been Wall Street’s collective decision not to panic or overreact to one set of negative data.

You'd like to have it both ways. Betcha that’s not an anomaly.

please stop torturing me with your daily updates of the market

Sorry, Out here in the real world, the markets here and abroad are totally ignoring the premise of your criticism. I didn't realize you preferred being ignored, while shouting into the void about sinister Easter eggs and worshiping the Lightbringer... and opposing those who “behold” an unrealistic made-up narrative filled with idiocy. Shout on.

Layers of sighs said...

" EITHER it's wrong now to mock Wall Street and the White House for daring to label it as an anomaly. OR it will be wrong in three months to have chortled about the loss being the biggest contraction in a non-recessionary period. It can’t be both."

The stupid is compounding. What...?

As a favor, I'll unwrap the first layer of stupid in your claim that the chart makes the case that the contraction was an anomaly. If you look closely under the "Recession?" column, you'll see where all the other examples have "Yes"; our Q1 has "No?". That question mark after the "No" is making an allowance for skepticism, rather than making the case for an anomoly. And as for your possible future "gotcha" that I referred to the contraction as "non-recessionary", I did that because: a) we have no knowledge yet that we are in a recession. b)I therefore actually cut Obama some slack and made the gracious assumption that we're not (despite 24 other contradictory data points in a row), so you wouldn't wail in hysteria that I was calling it a recession before that can be validated. Being motivated as I am, of course, by my hatred for Obama.

"In fact, if the next quarter does NOT show a loss, one of the factors in avoiding an official recession will have been Wall Street’s collective decision not to panic or overreact to one set of negative data." Spare me more ignorance. So now Wall Street = economy again, eh?

In closing, I want to thank you for not including another dagger of market update truth. I think another one might have finished me off. No one can ever say you're not merciful.

Sigh-cotherapy said...

I'll unwrap the first layer of stupid in your claim that the chart makes the case that the contraction was an anomaly.

Oh, you mean the chart that says "See if you can spot the outlier?" on top?

You don't even have to "look closely" to see it. (Hint: it's about eight times the size of the "No?")

You: Just Another Asinine Troll Who Thinks Forwarding Rightwing Memes Makes You Smarter Than the World, Despite Treating Facts Like Seashells on a Beach, to Be Picked Up or Walked Past Depending Solely on Whether You Find Them Pretty?
(The question mark at the end is there to show I eventually possibly might not have said what I just said.)

Anomaly, we roll along, roll along, roll along said...

July 30 update:
My my, will you looky here.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/30/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0FZ09P20140730

(Reuters) - U.S. economic growth accelerated more than expected in the second quarter and the decline in output in the prior period was less steep than previously reported, bolstering views for a stronger performance in the last six months of the year.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0 percent annual rate as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.

That pushed GDP above the economy's potential growth trend, which analysts put somewhere between a 2 percent and 2.5 percent pace. Economists had forecast the economy growing at a 3.0 percent rate in the second quarter after a previously reported 2.9 percent contraction.



Third-biggest quarter during this presidency. The market assessment and response was correct. As an armchair economist once said, "Viva Obama!"