I'm starting to believe the hype that this year will be bigger than 1994 and even the longshot GOP takeover of the Senate may be in reach. It's because, in my opinion, elections are always decided by three important (and overlapping) groups: women, independents, and elderly voters.
When it comes to the gender gap, a NY Times report indicates that men favor the generic Republican candidate by +13 while the gap for women is -7 (that is, they favor the Democrat by +7). But as the Times' title suggests: "Men are fuming, women are despairing," men are much more motivated to go out and vote so, as a minimum, the gender gap is a wash.
Among independent voters the GOP holds a single-point edge that extends into a +13% gap when these voters are moved into the "likely voter" column. And now, via Real Clear Politics, we can see the tide of older voters forming: "The Senior Wave: Older voters set for historic turnout"
The trend is strongest among voters age 65 and older. Eighty-four percent of seniors who are registered to vote say they will "definitely" vote. That's 9 percentage points above the previous record, 1994, when the question was first asked. Six in 10 seniors have given the election "a lot" of thought, also a peak. High enthusiasm and engagement generally signal high turnout.So they're really going to vote. And who are they really going to vote for?
This year, by Rasmussen's measure, seniors favor electing a Republican in their district by a 18-point margin (53 to 35 percent); Republicans' advantage with all other age groups is in the single digits. Gallup tracks the same trend. Seniors who are following the election closely, an indicator of likely turnout, favor Republicans by an 11-point margin in the ABC/Post poll.The cake is baked. Bribes aren't going to help. Slurpee jokes are done. "Speaker" Pelosi and "Senate Majority Leader" Reid will be no more.
The whirlwind is coming. Thanks, Grandma!
Extra - Politico: "In the eyes of the experts, the House Democratic majority most likely won’t survive Nov. 2, with political handicappers expanding their predictions to envision the possibility of a Democratic wipeout." Oh yeah.
More - This just in from Gallup: "GOP holds solid leads in voter preferences."
Put on a brave face, Gibbsy.