Obamacare or the abyss

In this post from Critical Condition, Jeffrey Anderson notes that President Obama and Nancy Pelosi want House Democrats to give up their seats for their greater good. Count me as one who is skeptical that the Dems will fall on their sword for the "permanent transformation" of America. Congressmen and women like their cushy, pampered sinecures. They like their perks and three-day workweeks and government-paid healthcare. They all have a large number of loyal staff, straight from Des Moines, whose jobs depend on their bosses getting re-elected.

Politics are local and nothing is more local than a Congressman's own status. Why vote for an unpopular piece of legislation to face oblivion (worst case) or years of constituents yelling at you (best case)? These Capitol Hill critters are no fools. They see the polls:

The truth is, the 39 congressional Democrats who voted "no" on Obamacare are on the road to reelection this November. As with moderate Democrats in 1994, voters will go easy on them for courageously standing up to their party's leaders, resisting a bad bill, and doing what the American people want. Meanwhile, Democrats who voted "yes" on Obamacare better hope that they represent extremely liberal districts or states - preferably more liberal than Massachusetts. Otherwise, when they lose in November, it's unlikely that they will get a call from Clinton or Obama apologizing for having been wrong.

The name of the game right now is creating a false sense of momentum. But there's a reason why you can't find a top Democrat predicting passage of Obamacare. The votes just aren't there and they're more unlikely to materialize each day we tick closer to election season.

Extra - More on the votes from Q&O.