Although it's looking increasingly unlikely that the House will have the votes to pass health care reform, the threat remains that the House could pass the Senate's POS bill complete with the Cornhusker Kickback, the "Cadillac" tax hike, and the abortion language. As far as I understand, this would only occur with the promise from the Senate that they'll fix all the budget items in reconciliation with just 51 votes.
But William Jacobson was the first to predict that - no matter what happens in the Senate - Obama can and will sign the bill that passes the House: "Obama will sign Senate bill if reconciliation fails." Then Senator Judd Gregg picked up on the meme: "Gregg suggests Obama may renege on fixing Senate health bill." AoSHQ also has some thoughts.
I don't know all the procedures of Congress but my understanding is that once the House passes the un-amended Senate bill, it could go to Obama right away. It's "passed" legislation. But the House is depending on the Senate to make certain changes that may or may not be done with the reconciliation process. But that process in the Senate is going to be ugly, with unlimited amendments, quorum calls, and appeals to the parliamentarian.
After a couple weeks (or months!) of Senate fighting, it's not only totally believable but likely that Obama will declare the system "broken" and sign the Senate/tricked House bill. The President's mania for this legislation over all others (e.g. jobs, deficit reduction, Iran) is now legendary. He will sign anything at all if it means taking his place in history.
Extra - Talk Left (!) - "I would not trust the Senate Dems on ANYTHING. If I were the House, I would insist on simultaneous passage." One-two-three-vote!
More - The latest at Memeorandum.
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