Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The upHill climb

First Read crunches the numbers and finds that Hillary probably needs 60% of the votes in Texas and Ohio to overcome Obama's expected lead:

For Clinton to overtake Obama for the pledged delegate lead -- which we think is the single most important statistic for the superdelegates to decide their vote -- she'll have to win 55% of the remaining delegates. Assuming next week goes Obama's way in Wisconsin and Hawaii, that percentage rises to 57%. Toss in likely Obama victories in Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then Clinton's percentage need tops 60% of the remaining delegates available.
When Hillary was the "inevitable" candidate, it was easy to strongarm superdelegates. Suddenly, Clinton is finding it hard to find friends.

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