Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Election 2006 – According to Slate’s numbers guy, the Democrats are mathematically incapable of taking control of the House.

Of course last week I declared that my NASCAR fantasy league was mathematically incapable of losing for the season. Thank you very much, Kurt Busch.


Eleanor Zogby said...

The odds are against everything going one party's way? What can one add but "Duhhhhhh!"

The money quote:
Plus, for Republicans, selling the impending Democratic victory resets expectations—in the current environment, the Democrats could pick up 14 seats and still come off as losers.

Having their majority reduced to a whisper will give the GOP capital, political capital. Or at least that's what we'll be hearing (and hearing, and hearing) on Wednesday morning: "HOORAY! We didn't get the crap TOTALLY kicked out of us!"

TGK said...

This will be a status quo election, with a slight tilt to the Dems (and that will be due to historical forces and Republican mistakes, not because they deserve it in any way).

If the Senate turns out evenly divided (it will be close), it'll be interesting to see which party Lieberman caucuses with.

yetanotherjohn said...

I don't think he is saying either party is "mathamatically eliminated". The democrats from gaining a majority and the republicans from increasing their 75 year high majority. It is just the odds favor one outcome over the other.

The expected result, knowing nothing more than this was a mid-term election is the majority party with the presideny would lose seats. The real question is the size of the change. If I had to bet now, the GOP will lose seats in both chambers, but they will retain majorities in both chambers. Time will tell.

Anonymous said...

The Democrats would have to get about 90% of the breaks to reach a majority, so they won't. And in the event that they do, you won't have to wait long for the immediate "sets the GOP up perfectly for 2008" mantra.

Of course, the Dems aren't quite organized enough to decide on their line of electoral B.S. or to repeat it into the ground, so they have their own spin problems.

Joe Lieberman will, naturally, caucus with his fellow lawmakers in the Connecticut for Lieberman Party. Cake will be served.