The chicken or the egg

President Bush’s approval rating has slipped over the past couple weeks and the big question is: are they dropping because of his pursuit of Social Security reform, or is reform floundering because of his low poll numbers?

I’m open to the idea that Dubya’s reform plan is not wildly popular and the poll numbers are a reflection of that. Depending on what poll you look at, his 60-day tour to promote reform either held support steady or saw it decline. But then the same polls also strongly indicate that Americans understand there’s a problem with entitlement spending that must be addressed.

My feeling is that Bush is willing to take the temporary hit on his popularity by touching the third rail of politics in exchange for long-term Republican gain. That is, Bush understands that younger workers will bear the burden of entitlement spending which is why they’re overwhelmingly in support of reform. The wisdom of Bush’s approach is that he’s playing to voters twelve years from now when the Social Security Trust Fund heads into the red. When payroll taxes are boosted to 18% to cover the shortfall, a whole generation of Americans will look back and wonder what might have been.

For this reason, I’ve always felt that taking a responsible position on entitlements is a win-win proposal for the long term, no matter what the immediate political fallout. Am I being a Pollyanna on this? Maybe. A short-term win would certainly be preferable and would be better for the country. But the irresponsibility of the Democratic Party and, conversely, the maturity of the Republicans will be placed in sharp relief once the enormity of the entitlement problem is made evident.