Losing the battle, winning the war

Despite the CATO-funded Zogby poll showing a majority of likely voters in favor of President Bush’s overhaul of Social Security, I’m skeptical that an agreement can be reached in Congress where the filibuster-crazed Democrats will surely block reform. The best we can hope for is another band-aid measure that shifts the bulk of the problem to a future Congress.

But while legislators squabble over arcane details such as the taxable wage cap, it looks like President Bush is digging into the Democratic base. From the Baltimore Sun – “Bush could draw voters through Social Security debate - GOP hopes to attract young, minorities even if plan flops”:

Bush is increasingly targeting his Social Security push to minorities and younger people - groups that disproportionately vote Democratic - in efforts to reap electoral benefits for Republicans even if he ultimately fails to enact his proposal.

Bush and party strategists hope to draw such voters to the Republican Party with a plan marketed and calibrated to appeal to them. They are betting that the president's central themes in the Social Security debate - allowing more Americans to take charge of their retirement security and fixing a system that shortchanges those who can least afford it - will win over new investors and minority groups that rely most heavily on the program.

Even if the measure collapses, some Republican officials and backers of the president's plan say, Bush could win what would be a more far-reaching victory.

Part of the problem with Social Security reform is that the system is not yet in crisis. But once younger workers realize that the National Ponzi Scheme will collapse just as they’re about to retire, they’ll embrace reform and – perhaps – the Grand Old Party.