California recall update and prediction

Political Wire has a post titled “Large Turnout Expected for Recall” noting “89 percent of Californians say they are following the recall closely, while 77 percent say they intend to vote in the Oct. 7 election.”

Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics has updated their California Recall page with the latest poll showing Ah-nold with a 5-point lead over Lt. Governor Cruz “Gray Davis? Never heard of him” Bustamante. RCP also averages the current polls and estimates 58% of Californians for the recall and 37% opposing.

As a final stat to mull over, take note that Gray Davis continues to wallow with a 72% disapproval rating. Based solely on the motivation factor, I’m predicting that whatever the recall poll says is low by at least 5% - therefore, recall wins with 63% of the vote – indicating that nearly two out of three voters (including some Democrats) want Davis gone. I’m also giving Ah-nold the “Jesse Ventura motivated vote” and an easy win with, oh, 25% of the total vote.

Keep an eye on the highly accurate Taco Bell poll.