Don't play Texas Hold'em with Dubya

It probably wasn't an accident that at a press conference before the war with Iraq that President George W. Bush said that the members of the U.N. Security Council should "show their cards." Judging by his continuous out-maneuvering of those who stand in his way, Bush must have played a game or two of poker in his life. Look at that poker face: Bush is inarticulate, exasperated by details, he seems unfocused. But when a big hand is in play, it's always Dubya walking away with the pot.

Barely a couple of months into his Presidency, Bush pushed through his tax-cut bill and put the Democrats on the permanent defensive. They wanted to spend more (as usual) but didn't have the nuts to ask for the tax-cut repeal. On Iraq, Bush suckered the Democrats into overplaying their hand: the White House floated the idea that Congressional approval wasn't necessary to launch a military offensive in Iraq. Outraged Democrats, especially (soon-to-be-former) Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, demanded a vote. Every Senate Democrat up for re-election or planning to run for President (except for Paul Wellstone) voted for the Iraq war resolution. All throughout year-long buildup to the 2002 midterm elections, the Democrats failed to put together a coherent message on either the economy or Iraq – and they lost big. The day after the election, commentator David Brooks gushed:

Finally, never, ever, ever underestimate George W. Bush. It took me two years of being wrong about Bush before I finally got sick of it. The rest of the pundit class had better catch on. He is a leader of the first order. This historic night belongs to him.

Aussie blogger Tim Blair followed up with his thoughts on the "moron" Bush:

Thus far, the reputed idiot Bush has graduated from Yale and Harvard, made a stack of cash in the oil industry, become the first consecutive-term governor of Texas, defeated a dual-term VP for the Presidency, and led his party to yesterday's extraordinary triumphs. Let his opponents keep calling him stupid; if they do, within five years Bush will be King of England, the Pope, and world Formula One motor racing champion.

More recently, as the war with Iraq dragged beyond a week, the clarion call of "quagmire" sounded from the offices of the New York Times and the floor of the Congress. Once again it had all the appearances of Bush tricking his opponents into making public statements against the liberation of Iraq – before everything turned around. Here's Andrew Sullivan castigating tomorrow's NYT news analysis:

Johnny Apple - barely drawing breath after declaring absolute military disaster - now proclaims stunning political and military success, "taking the heat off" president Bush for his conduct of the war. Ta-da! Only on 43rd Street, of course, could anyone believe president Bush was in political trouble at any point in the last couple of weeks because of his conduct of the war. But there you have it. This is the newspaper, remember, that once declared the Enron scandal would have more historical salience than 9/11. On second paranoid Kausian 2am thought, of course, this Apple piece cannot but ne very bad news. The general rule in American journalism is that R. W. Apple (bested only by Arthur Schlesinger Jr.) is always, always wrong. God help the armed services in the next few days. Couldn't Howell have restrained Johnny until we'd actually won?

Now here's my prediction for the aftermath of Iraq: it will be maddening for the left-wingers in San Francisco and the New York Times to see free people in Baghdad cheering U.S. troops. So, then, the theory will be proposed that the U.S. war in Iraq will be illegitimate and a failure unless weapons of mass destruction are found. The pressure to find chemical and biological weapons will grow and grow and the enemies of Bush – driven more by personal animosity than principled opposition – will get louder and shriller until the attacks reach a critical mass. Then, only then, all will be revealed, and Bush will once again pull in the pot from those who bet against him and the United States.