The Russians are telegraphing their strategy ahead of the meeting, which will consist of lavishing Trump with praise and cajoling him with the promise of deals for joint infrastructure projects in the Arctic and the like. All they want in exchange is for Ukraine to surrender vast swaths of unoccupied territory, including major industrial towns and cities, and to ratify the legitimacy of Russia’s previous conquests. Putin will likely accept something short of that if it leaves Ukraine vulnerable to internal subversion and, eventually, a third invasion.We know what Trump’s goal for this summit is: peace, or something he can plausibly call peace. It’s unclear what tactics he will deploy in the pursuit of that goal, but there is an imbalance of objectives that favors Russia. Moscow is not suing for peace, nor is Kyiv. It’s Trump who has that goal in mind, and it is he who is putting that ask to Putin. The Kremlin’s acquiescence will come at a cost.
I don't have high hopes for this summit. One fear I have is that Trump is desperate to show "the art of the deal" that he'll accept something sub-optimal in exchange for peace, like a land exchange in Ukraine. Then there's Putin who has done nothing to pull back and apparently faces no consequences for the meat grinder he's created for the Russian military.
The most likely outcome I see is that there's no peace deal and Trump imposes new sanctions, including pressuring other countries, and this will not move Putin at all.
1 comment:
I’m afraid that you are 100% correct.
Russia can afford to lose millions of draftees and still win. Worked in WWII didn’t it? Ukraine cannot, so they will lose, and lose big.
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