A main takeaway from our groups is that a cross-section of independents, Republicans and Democrats liked how America was under Mr. Trump — they liked the economy, the perception of relative global stability, the restraint of divided government and the image that this outsider businessman was not beholden to Washington insiders, lobbyists and big money (the unholy trio of turpitude for many of our participants). There were plenty of things that they didn’t like about Mr. Trump — his behavior and tweets most of all — but those didn’t matter as much. Then Covid happened and Americans wanted a more stable leader. Listening to all of these voters over the years, I can’t help but feel that Mr. Trump probably would have been re-elected in 2020 if not for Covid. And his refusal to concede the 2020 election and his behavior on Jan. 6 turned our focus group participants against him more than anything else he did. Perhaps that will be enough to defeat him this week.As for Mr. Biden’s challenges, one of the signal failures of his administration has been telling Americans that the economy was getting better and better. They kept telling us: Not for me. Americans hate inflation, full stop. If there was a common denominator for our groups across 2022, 2023 and 2024, it was experiencing and loathing inflation, such that I see it as the single most important fact of life in Tuesday’s election. That can’t be overstated.
I feel like I've been saying for a year now that this will be a "fundamentals" election where Americans may be put off by Trump's boorish behavior but conclude that peace and prosperity are more important.
1 comment:
Poor guy. They loved him until he ran for office and screwed up their protection rackets and money trains. This time they fight tooth and nail to keep the only candidate that can not be bought out of office for their own enrichment.
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