At this point, it's looking likely that Sleepy Joe will eke out a victory with the barest of margins in the electoral college. This was a huge surprise among the A+ pollsters who consistently overestimated Biden's support in all the battleground states.
In the House, the Cook Political Report predicted:
We now view a Democratic net gain of 10 to 15 seats as the likeliest outcome, with anything from five to 20 seats well within the realm of possibility.
End result as of this writing? The Republicans have picked up +5 seats in the House and moderate Democrats are talking about replacing Nancy Pelosi.
How about the Senate?
Democrats remain the clear favorites to take back the Senate with just days to go until Election Day.
Oh, do tell. At this writing, the Democrats are at +1 and they might pick up another, to keep Chuck Schumer as minority leader. But I understand: until a week before election day, Joni Ernst in Iowa was consistently trailing behind Theresa Greenfield. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis had been trailing in every poll since October 22nd. Then there's the Maine Senate race where incumbent Susan Collins hasn't been above water since February, has been trailing in fundraising, and has been left for dead...before winning by eight percentage points.
Pollster Frank Luntz had the decency to point out the obvious:
"The political polling profession is done," leading Republican pollster Frank Luntz tells Axios. "It is devastating for my industry."
How did we get to this state where polling is nearly meaningless? Well, I would say it's because a large portion of America sees the inherent bias in the mainstream media and says "no thanks."
Now we're in a death spiral where nobody believes the media and therefore people hide their true feelings, resulting in completely bogus polls, which hurts the credibility of the media. Rinse and repeat.
After Trump's surprising win in 2016, the media swore they would do better to understand the concerns of people who don't go to Zabar's for bagels. Maybe find somebody who owns a pickup truck. But no, they pour the contempt on middle America and middle America pours their contempt right back.
Corrupt media pollsters never cared about getting the results right. They were paid to get the narrative right. https://t.co/nUPYHRHius
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) November 4, 2020
12 comments:
Despite admissions by people like Frank Luntz, Van Jones, and Nate Silver that the polling process is broken, a certain lefty caricature in this site's comments section will never give up his childlike faith in Democrat-leaning "polls", even after repeated bitchslappings by reality. "They'll have to take muh polls from muh cold, dead fingers!"
Some gems from this genius:
Up in Maine, Sara Gideon beat Susan Collins' fundraising total by $4.5 million. Ouch.
New poll sees Sen. Susan Collins' approval fall from 42% to 37%.
With the workout Susan’s furrowed brow is getting, it’s going to be able to bench 500 pounds by the time this is over.
Remember Tillis? While he was busy slipping further in the polls, his challenger more than doubled the beleaguered Senator's cash take.
I also didn't mention that Senator Thom Tillis trails in the latest poll by 7%, because I know rough tough conservatives need a trigger warning for those kinds of results.
Maine: Sara Gideon 51%, Susan Collins 42%
South Carolina: Graham, 42%, Harrison 42%
[Trigger warning: even >$100 million funneled to Graham's opponent, making it the most expensive Senate campaign in history, couldn't obliterate reality's runaway poll.]
And yet another in a long ongoing string of Florida polling leads for Basement Biden.
The Atlantic: "In every swing state but Arizona, Trump outperformed the FiveThirtyEight polling average."
"Muh polls and muh money!"
Who's been elected president?
"If Biden 'wins', that means muh polls were correct!", said no serious person, anywhere.
Heh. I told you to cut Biden's lead in half, and see who wins then.
Who's been elected president?
Who didn’t lose the senate, gained seats in the house? . Democrats on track to lose the the house and more seats in the senate in 2022, and then get crushed in 2024 when a pissed off Trump runs again. Democrats are losing their minds that more people including minorities voted for Trump this year than 4 years ago. Wait until the rest figure out that Biden puppet saying “ orange man bad” doesn’t actually accomplish anything.
Crazy socialist AOC is going to fuck up Pelosi now, and Schumer in 2 years when she runs against him. Going to be fun times watching the socialists split the Dems apart. All the talk about the Dems trying to redistrict AOC out of congress when NY loses a seat due to the census is going to be high drama.
PS. Imagine being Hillary and having to live with the fact that Biden won and she didn’t. She must be shattered knowing that a doddering old man with dementia who can barely string a coherent sentence together without a teleprompter won, and she lost.
First anonymous: wow, that was some nice archaeology there. Kudos!
Less than a week ago, the same guy who doesn’t believe “the broken Democrat-leaning 'polls'” crowed about 56% of people telling Gallup They Are Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago. Hmm. Where'd they go? That's a Nate Silver-sized miss.
Now, get a load of all that sweaty predictin' energy. The return of "a pissed off Trump," oh NO! We've had the pleasant one up until now. And trading Schumer for Ocasio-Cortez, what an existential nightmare!
2024? Um... didn't you predict and predict and predict that Trump would win this election?
Also, internecine party bloodshed to come and "Democrats losing their minds"? Oh well. Better losing minds than losing the White House.
And how about that Donald Trump Junior, angrily attacking the disloyalty of "2024 GOP hopefuls" today? But that's not high drama nor a party split. That's only like a GOP election fraud complaint — not to be taken seriously.
"More people voted for Trump than 4 years ago," while Biden's words "don't actually accomplish anything"? :::looks at the election results::: Okay, that checks out.
You're vowing to have future fun, Trolly. 110% almost guaranteed, someday, eventually. While I'm stuck having my fun right now. Oh, how I wish I were you today. I'm grinning with such sadness, and my good mood is falling faster than Trump's 300,000-vote margin in Georgia. (Don't worry, though. All those extra minorities who voted for Trump will come through.)
Who’s been elected president?
You are so much fun to troll, I bet I can get another thousand words out of you for 30 seconds of my time.
I shall continue to taunt you at any page count that amuses me. Every word is another dagger into your aching Soleimani Bounce heart. Nice try with the mental reverse troll-jitsu, though.
But don’t quit! Keep going. You’re totally convincing me that you’re happier about the election than I am. Awake and posting in the middle of the night, watching Georgia and Pennsylvania slip away.
Neither of us had perfect foresight. I assumed Susan Collins would lose. You assumed Donald Trump would win. I'm delighted with my mixed result. How's your day?
"Less than a week ago, the same guy who doesn’t believe “the broken Democrat-leaning 'polls'” crowed about 56% of people telling Gallup They Are Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago."
What guy is this? Post a link.
Not "you guy," Viking. It was "Muh Polls!" troll guy, suddenly embracing polls on Halloween ("Carry That Water"). Did you know that by this metric, Trump was 11% ahead of Obama?
George Gallup said...
Many of the people who filed for unemployment this year are among the 56% of people who Say They Are Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago.
That poll question is considered one of the most important questions in presidential campaigns, and candidates running for re-election feel very comfortable if that number comes closer to 50% than 40%. The number for Trump is 11% higher than it was for Obama/Biden before their second term election.
Good luck on Tuesday!
Crazy socialist AOC is going to fuck up Pelosi now, and Schumer in 2 years when she runs against him. Going to be fun times watching the socialists split the Dems apart. All the talk about the Dems trying to redistrict AOC out of congress when NY loses a seat due to the census is going to be high drama.
Oh no!!! NOT the kind of ordinary internecine ideological jockeying that has existed within the Democratic Party for longer than we've been alive! Not that!!
Heh. Axios: "He plans to wreck Fox": Trump eyes starting his own digital media empire
Heh. Business Insider: '#FoxNews is dead': Trump spends morning going after Fox News in retweet spree
Heh. Donald Trump tweets:
.@FoxNews daytime ratings have completely collapsed. Weekend daytime even WORSE. Very sad to watch this happen, but they forgot what made them successful, what got them there. They forgot the Golden Goose. The biggest difference between the 2016 Election, and 2020, was @FoxNews!
Heh.
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