Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Let's rip this band-aid off

I voted, for what that's worth in The People's Republic of Massachusetts.

This is a crazy year, so who knows what's going to happen.  But the Real Clear Politics average shows that Biden has a +2.3% advantage in the battleground states.   Just for comparison, Hillary went into election day with a +1.1% advantage over Trump.  

In 2016, Hillary had a +6.5% aggregate lead in Wisconsin; Biden has a +6.7% lead.  Hillary led by +1.9% in Pennsylvania; Biden leads by 1.2%.

So if we see a repeat of the "shy Trump" voter surge, it could be deja vu all over again. 

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The most recent date that Donald Trump led Joe Biden in each state's 538 polling average:

Texas: today
Ohio: today
Iowa: today
Georgia: September 30
Wisconsin: April 14
Florida: April 3
Arizona: March 7
Pennsylvania: never
Michigan: never
North Carolina: never
Minnesota: never
Nevada: never
New Hampshire: never



RCP ignores more than two-thirds of the pollsters, but making their inner circle are right-leaning Rasmussen and no-you-can't-see-our-crosstabs Trafalgar.

538 includes all the pollsters. And thus five of RCP's six battleground states are above RCP's purported 2.3% average battleground advantage:

Wisconsin 8.4, Michigan 7.9, Pennsylvania 4.7, Florida 2.5, North Carolina 1.8, Arizona 2.6

Why Real Clear Politics doesn't also characterize Georgia (Biden by 1.2), Texas (Trump by 1.1), Iowa (Trump by 1.3), Ohio (Trump by 0.8) and others as "battleground states" is unexplained.

Anonymous said...

Here's Muh poll: Down the stretch, Trump was holding several rallies a day, each with tens of thousands of people. Meanwhile Biden was holding several rallies a week, each with tens of people.

Eric said...

Nate Silver is taking so much shit for his shitty polls he is quoted saying today:

"F--- you, we did a good job."

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