House Democrats have announced the grounds of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress on which they plan to seek the impeachment of President Trump. Neither of these proposed articles satisfy the express constitutional criteria for an impeachment, which are limited to “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Neither are high or low crimes or misdemeanors. Neither are mentioned within the Constitution.You can tell they're a farce because the Democrats struggled mightily to push quid pro quo until the focus groups told them to shift to bribery. In the end, they had to settle on "abuse of power" which is a completely meaningless talking point that could have been used a dozen times on the previous resident of the Oval Office.
Both are so vague and open ended that they could be applied in partisan fashion by a majority of the House against almost any president from the opposing party. Both are precisely what the Framers had rejected at their Constitutional Convention. Both raise the “greatest danger,” in the words of Alexander Hamilton, that the decision to impeach will be based on the “comparative strength of parties,” rather than on “innocence or guilt.”
Thursday, December 12, 2019
The sham articles
Alan Dershowitz in The Hill: "Two House articles of impeachment fail to meet constitutional standards."
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You can tell the [articles of impeachment are] a farce because the Democrats struggled mightily to push quid pro quo until the focus groups told them to shift to bribery.
Nixon's articles of impeachment never mentioned the word "burglary" or "break-in."
Also, Democrats didn't struggle mightily. All polling shows that public opinion jumped upwards in favor of impeachment at the very time that Trump's "quid pro quo" was being discussed and reported.
And as you know, the word "bribery" was simultaneously used to describe Trump's criminal actions from the time they were first uncovered.
Neither are high or low crimes or misdemeanors.
The word "high" in "high crimes and misdemeanors" refers to the elevated position of the accused; e.g. a president or a judge. It does NOT refer to particular categories of crime.
For example, none of the ordinary Americans convicted of treason were, or needed to be impeached beforehand.
Glad to help!
Also, Democrats didn't struggle mightily. All polling shows that public opinion jumped upwards in favor of impeachment at the very time that Trump's "quid pro quo" was being discussed and reported.
"All polling" shows that support for Trump's impeachment was strongest before any hearings began and has dropped to its lowest point currently. Yeah - Democrats are struggling, alright, but struggling to make the case that any crime was committed, regardless of the name they want to give it.
"All polling" shows that support for Trump's impeachment was strongest before any hearings began and has dropped to its lowest point currently.
No, that is incorrect. The RCP graph you linked doesn't begin until a month after the Ukraine scandal broke publicly. It thus misses the sharp upward polling jump in support of impeachment to the level that has not gone away.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/
Also, RCP's "tied" impeachment polling is based entirely on just 4 recent polls. It's hard to reconcile that even-steven average with RCP's own heavily red list of poll results:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_the_impeachment_and_removal_of_president_trump-6957.html
Real Clear Politics' incomplete methodology can lead readers astray, because it has a funny habit of omitting the majority of poll results. For example, RCP's impeachment poll average includes just 18 polls since Halloween, while the 538.com average includes 56 such polls over the identical timeframe.
As it turns out, you were right to put scare quotes around "all polling" in reference to RCP, just not for the reason you imagined.
Happy to better inform you. And glad to see your tacit acceptance of the plain truth behind the first post's other three points.
It's hard to reconcile that even-steven average with RCP's own heavily red list of poll results
You will find a lot of things getting hard to reconcile as we move along. Especially once the impeachment process itself becomes fair.
When you can't respond, you might consider not responding.
New Fox News poll on impeachment, released today:
54% support the impeachment
50% support Trump's conviction and removal
41% oppose the impeachment
That's up 9% from Fox News' previous +4% impeachment poll on October 30. Add this poll to the pile.
Your jeers about the McConnell trial are innocuous, because the result has always been a done deal. And we were so tantalizingly close, too-- only 20 Senate seats away!
The belated fun will come with the post-impeachment GOP reelection races in Maine, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and implausibly, even Texas.
Poor Susan Collins' forehead might snap right off, with the extreme brow-furrowing she's going to need to do.
Until then, let's enjoy this hilarious outlier poll that came out this week in South Carolina:
Lindsey Graham 47%
Some Democrat Whoozis 45%
A puny 2% lead for the official White House pet? Can it be it true? Do we have a new state to add to the fun list? Alas, very doubtful.
Will it force the GOP to burn extra money on Graham that House candidates therefore won't be getting? Very likely.
(See: Wave, blue (U.S. fundraising, 2018))
ActBlue is on pace to raise over $3 billion for next year's Democratic candidates. Why, that's more than a hundred times the money that Russia illegally funneled through the NRA!
ActBlue already has more individual donors in this cycle's first 3 quarters than they had in eight quarters in 2017-2018, and they've given six times as much money as in 2015 Q1-Q3. I just hope they don't blow it all on "quid pro quo/bribery" focus groups.
let's enjoy this hilarious outlier poll that came out this week in South Carolina... Well, we know how much credibility outlier polls deserve. Or even 4 or 18 poll outlier averages.
Depending on what the outliers say, of course.
Yes, mastermind, I just called it a hilarious outlier poll. You're literally debunking the thing I said by repeating the thing I said.
Sorry, bub. You called it "hilarious" not because you were laughing at its absurdity, but because you saw it as embarrassing to Graham. That's also why you gushed over it for 3 paragraphs and announced it would probably divert GOP spending (they apparently being too stupid to see, as you "do", that outliers are garbage).
Then there was the Fox News outlier poll showing 54% support for impeachment, which you also noted with glee rather than irony or skepticism.
You simply got caught being a hypocrite, and now you don't like how that feels.
Heh.
Me "gushing over the Graham poll":
"Until then, let's enjoy this hilarious outlier poll that came out this week in South Carolina: ...A puny 2% lead for the official White House pet? Can it be it true? Do we have a new state to add to the fun list? Alas, very doubtful."
Me "noting the Fox News impeachment poll with glee rather than irony or skepticism":
"Add this poll to the pile."
Okay, so you're terrible at trolling. But at reading?
Also, the Fox poll is not an outlier.
Fox News: Support for removal: 50%
NABC/WaPo: Support for removal: 49%
IBD/TIPP: Support for removal: 49%
Civiqs: Support for removal: 50%
Those are four of the six most recent "do you support removal?" impeachment polls. The other two were each at 45%. None of the six polls are outliers.
Understanding polling just isn't your thing.
Heh.
Me: "No one who's skeptical of outlier polls would fantasize that such a poll would make a party redirect its campaign funds."
You: "".
Me: "That Fox poll you touted was an outlier because it shows 54% support for impeachment."
You: "It's not an outlier because of all these other polls that agree with Fox's 50% support for removal."
I'd advise you to refrain from making comments about reading and understanding.
Then again, you did read and understand, it's just that you knew you had a tap dance to do.
Nevertheless, your operating principle is loud and clear:
Outliers for me, but not for thee.
Heh.
New CNN poll on impeachment, released today:
45% support Trump's conviction and removal
47% oppose conviction and removal
That's up 5% from CNNs' previous impeachment poll in mid-November. Add this poll to the pile.
And yes, that is gushing.
New Quinnipiac University Poll, released yesterday:
51% oppose impeachment and removal
45% support impeachment and removal
The "No" is up 5% from the poll in late October. Add this enjoyably hilarious outlier poll to the garbage pile.
Let's enjoy this hilarious outlier national poll that came out this week from USA TODAY/Suffolk University:
Donald Trump 44%
Some Democrat Whoozis 37%
A frightening 7% lead for the official White House crook? Can it be it (sic) true? Do we have a second term in the bag? Alas, very doubtful.
Will it force the DNC to burn extra money on a new dossier? Very likely.
(See: Steele, Christopher (FBI FISA, 2016))
I see you didn't like being reminded that understanding polls isn't your thing. So your response is to go even trollier, and more incoherent? That's certainly a... response.
Cheer up, life isn't all about Trump's bad poll numbers, and bad impeachment numbers, and bad approval numbers. It's holiday season! And you should be in much happier spirits. After all, it's Impeachment Eve!
You're always fun to watch as assumptions you cherish crumble at your feet.
Now cease your hypocrisy on outliers, or I'll sic Boante Ray on you.
In another divisive, yet enjoyable outlier poll, Gallup reports today:
Support impeach and remove: 46%
Oppose Impeach and remove: 51%
Support is "down six percentage points from the first reading after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the impeachment inquiry."
Gallup also shows Trump job approval near its high for his entire presidency.
Crumble, crumble, crumble...
Look at you, pretending that you prefer Trump's side of the polling to the Democratic side's polling. Pretending so, so hard!
"There was no blue wave.
There was no quid pro quo.
Where are the transcripts?
Get ready for a surge of Al-Bag-Whatever goodwill.
The noose is 'slowly tightening' in the illegal FBI Get Trump probe.
Impeachment polls are turning in Trump's favor.
Uh oh, Democrats are getting cold feet on impeachment."
And now, your newest and most terrifying prediction...
Crumble, crumble, crumble...
Brrr, I just felt a chill in my Democratic feet.
"Crumble, crumble, crumble" is not a prediction. It's a description of what is going on even as you read this.
Does anyone have some warm wool socks I could borrow? Because Nancy Pelosi doesn't have the votes.
[Crumble]
The only bipartisan vote to be found yesterday was the one against impeachment.
[Crumble]
Though Nancy did find the votes, for some reason she now can't find the articles of impeachment and will be forced to indefinitely delay their passage over to the Senate.
[Crumble]
For the first time, the betting markets now show Trump with over 50% chance of winning in 2020. And his chances went up 1% yesterday for some crazy reason.
You take the partisanship complaint, and the process complaint, and the all-important betting markets.
Sadly, I'm forced to settle for mere crumbs: the election polling, and the generic Congressional ballot, and the Senate map, and Trump's approval rating, and the record 2018 midterm turnout indicator, and the large gap in Dem/GOP retirements (bye, Mark Meadows!), and the more than $3 billion in donations that ActBlue is going to raise.
As you note, there have been major 2020 shifts this week. Trump's approval rose a little, the GOP's generic ballot position slipped a little, and the gap in House retirements widened a little. And ActBlue collected another $24 million, while WinRed raked in $2 million. Crumbling, crumbling, crumbling.
I would have thought "the all-important betting markets" was a sarcastic quip were it not for your own past touting of them as authoritative. Remember when Ted Cruz ruled the betting markets for Republican nominee? I wouldn't have, except for your breathless excitement.
I hope I've taught you enough about polling in this thread so that your behavior will improve in regard to outlier polls, and that not too many additional reminders will be necessary.
But I'm moving on. Feel free to remain and mumble some more about Kmart if you like.
Throwing your turds after you've been humbled is kind of like an epic mic drop.
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