Various polling by Fox News, Morning Consult, Civiqs, CBA Strategies, SSRS, YouGov, Survey USA, SocialSphere, Change Research, Monmouth U, Marist, Gallup, Quinnipiac and others has been 50% or higher for Trump's impeachment and/or removal.
The new 55% poll is the least lonely outlier poll ever.
It's amazing how this guy thinks he can have it both ways.
If anyone quotes an outlier poll that he doesn't like, he ridicules its outlierness. But if he tries the same tactic and gets called on it, the writhing and flipping is hilarious to watch.
Imagine someone actually using "50% is the same as 55%" as a defense. I can't, at least not someone who isn't desperate.
Then notice the "multiple polls" justification. "All these polls show 50%. That makes it truth!". Remember when the Real Clear Politics average was ridiculed by him as a mere 18 polls? Heh.
We were told then that the only numbers that can be relied upon are those from his beloved, worshiped 538. But it just happens that both RCP and 538 show support for impeach and remove at 47%.
But if you think about it, 47% is close enough to 50% to be identical...and as he showed above, 50% is the same as 55%.
All those impeachment polls showing 50% doesn't "make it truth," in your trollish straw man characterization. It makes 55% just what I said: less of an outlier.
Also, those impeachment polls don't all show 50%. They show 50% but also 51% and 52% and 53% and 54%. Hint: That's what the phrase "or higher" means.
The Real Clear Politics average is properly criticized for leaving out about two-thirds of polls, making it less inclusive and less reliable than it could and should be. By design or by chance, the RCP narrowing process has consistently shown Republican candidates to greater advantage. However, rest assured that you are ridiculed, for preferring its more comforting results while sneering at 538's better methodology. You're not alone in this; Trump only re-tweets Rasmussen polls.
But it just happens that both RCP and 538 show support for impeach and remove at 47%.
No, 538 shows 48%. More importantly, you're only looking at half the equation. 538 has support for Trump's removal leading by 2% (47.8% to 46%), but RCP shows support for Trump's removal trailing by 1% (47% to 48.1%).
No matter which percentage you need to embrace, the best part is this. Donald Trump's impeachment and removal is more popular than Trump has ever been.
You: "A 55% poll result is validated by other polls of 50% 'or higher'. Why be nit picky?"
Also you: "Don't imply 538 validates the RCP result of 47% when the 538 poll could be rounded up all the way to 48%."
And you: "The outlier I like, 55%, is not to be judged by how far away it is from the 538 average, as outliers you like are to be judged, but instead by any handful of polls I can find that are closer to it. In a situation like this, shove the wonderful 538 methodology."
Stellar reply. There's less ducking and hiding in the Witness Protection Program.
You know, when you don't actually have a cogent response, the sensible thing to do is not respond.
The 538 impeachment average already includes multiple 54% polls. Adding one poll that came out 1% higher isn't going to appreciably change their numbers. But adding the un-included polls to the RCP average would change theirs. Also, the current difference between the two polls isn't 1%, it's 3%. Which wouldn't be momentous for a single poll, but does have significance with a large sampling. Do I really need to explain to you what an average is?
In case you missed it: According to RCP's more forgiving model, Donald Trump's impeachment and removal is more popular than Trump has ever been.
Pretending my response isn't "cogent" does not get you out of your predicament. Nor does pretending I'm the one doing the ducking and hiding. Project all you want, it avails you nothing.
The 538 impeachment average already includes multiple 54% polls. Apparently you don't even see that this fact makes your position even worse, i.e., 538 shows 47.8% for impeachment despite the inclusion of the outliers. You'd be better off if 538 came up with its number while ignoring them - then you could complain that Nate Silver is ignoring outlier data you like.
Since my main point was so good, and so ignored, here it is again: "The outlier I like, 55%, is not to be judged by how far away it is from the 538 average, as outliers you like are to be judged, but instead by any handful of polls I can find that are closer to it. In a situation like this, shove the wonderful 538 methodology."
Donald Trump's impeachment and removal is more popular than Trump has ever been.
said...
Yikes, maybe you really don't grasp what an average is. 538 also includes several polls in where approval for impeachment is 35%, 36% and 37%.
538 also includes several polls in which opposition to impeachment is 50% or higher. (So you understand, "or higher" means that some of the numbers are bigger than 50.)
2019 was the best. Your New Year's resolution should be "Be more cogent."
Yikes, you actually seem to be arguing that because your 55% poll is included in the 538 average, it cannot be considered an unreliable outlier. I wouldn't know where to begin with that other than to recommend a course in statistics. But apparently I grasp what an average is better than you. As in, an average score of 47.8% that includes 55%, 54%, 53%, and thereabouts, is going to be higher, that is, higher than it would be if it did not include those entries.
Which makes 55%'s distance from 47.8% a quite significant thing, and it's why your touting of the 55% outlier is transparently hypocritical and laughable. But then, we've established that your favored outlier is not to be judged by how it compares to the 538 average, but rather by how it compares to any handful of polls you can find that are closer to it. Shove 538's methodology.
The 55% poll is not yet included in 538's impeachment average.
Boy, the way that zinger invalidates my point is stunning! And funny too, because it was a punchline. Suddenly 55% looks like less of an outlier because it's not in Nate's stable of polls.
Just remain in your protected world and continue to mumble like Dustin. It's safer there. And don't forget to tell Nate to shove his methodology.
Despite all the tire tracks I left across your body this year, I'm an excellent driver.
The way the events of 2019 and our friendly chats panned out for you, it's not surprising that you'd retreat to the memory of 1980s movie references.
Alas, you remain Robert De Niro in "Raging Bull" (1980). Absorbing shattering blows, arms limp at your side, face pulped, still rigidly insisting, "Hey, Ray. Ray. Hey, Ray. I never went down, Ray. You never got me down, Ray. You hear me, Ray? You never got me down. You hear me?"
Should I explain where a trained monkey could locate the 49.5% and the 52.3% (still the respective removal/impeachment polling averages, as of 5 seconds ago)?
I'd rather you explain why you can't read a graph. But that's okay. 538 has your handicap covered with plain, readable text (from an article, also Jan 3):
You know you're dominating when your article link carries the title "Our Poll Finds A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal".
Better yet, the article link includes a fresh 57% poll supporting impeachment. Just. Stop. Outlying.
As of early January 6th, each of the various 538.com impeachment averages remains in its same spot: 49.4% (all polls), 52.3% (begin/approve impeachment process) and 49.5% (impeachment/removal). As does your favored but still awful 47.0% (removal only). Ignoring three of them doesn't make them go away.
You've found that last number. But you'll need your full Restaurant Puzzle Place Mat detective skills to locate them all!
That's right. 47% is 538's January 3rd methodology result for removal. When did I represent it as anything different?
You, on the other hand, triumphantly presented 49.5% as...well, in your own words: "538.com's average has shoved the methodology up to 49.5% for removal.", and "You might want to take a closer look, Top Gun. 49.5% for removal."
After I vigorously slapped you around about that, with your response being an attempt to gaslight me into disbelieving my own lying eyes, you now realize you're cornered and have to admit I was right, but are trying to save face by implying you were reporting your vaunted 49.5% figure as "impeachment/removal" all along.
I think we could safely say this thread has not been your finest hour.
24 comments:
Act Blue is going to raise more than $3 billion this cycle. Ho, ho, ho!
New MSN poll finds 55% support Trump's removal. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
At least, it's the most wonderful outlier of the year.
The MSN poll must have been cooked up to save liberals the heartache of citing the Fox News poll as their favorite.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_the_impeachment_and_removal_of_president_trump-6957.html
Various polling by Fox News, Morning Consult, Civiqs, CBA Strategies, SSRS, YouGov, Survey USA, SocialSphere, Change Research, Monmouth U, Marist, Gallup, Quinnipiac and others has been 50% or higher for Trump's impeachment and/or removal.
The new 55% poll is the least lonely outlier poll ever.
It's amazing how this guy thinks he can have it both ways.
If anyone quotes an outlier poll that he doesn't like, he ridicules its outlierness. But if he tries the same tactic and gets called on it, the writhing and flipping is hilarious to watch.
Imagine someone actually using "50% is the same as 55%" as a defense. I can't, at least not someone who isn't desperate.
Then notice the "multiple polls" justification. "All these polls show 50%. That makes it truth!". Remember when the Real Clear Politics average was ridiculed by him as a mere 18 polls? Heh.
We were told then that the only numbers that can be relied upon are those from his beloved, worshiped 538. But it just happens that both RCP and 538 show support for impeach and remove at 47%.
But if you think about it, 47% is close enough to 50% to be identical...and as he showed above, 50% is the same as 55%.
So 55% has been verified!
All those impeachment polls showing 50% doesn't "make it truth," in your trollish straw man characterization. It makes 55% just what I said: less of an outlier.
Also, those impeachment polls don't all show 50%. They show 50% but also 51% and 52% and 53% and 54%. Hint: That's what the phrase "or higher" means.
The Real Clear Politics average is properly criticized for leaving out about two-thirds of polls, making it less inclusive and less reliable than it could and should be. By design or by chance, the RCP narrowing process has consistently shown Republican candidates to greater advantage. However, rest assured that you are ridiculed, for preferring its more comforting results while sneering at 538's better methodology. You're not alone in this; Trump only re-tweets Rasmussen polls.
But it just happens that both RCP and 538 show support for impeach and remove at 47%.
No, 538 shows 48%. More importantly, you're only looking at half the equation. 538 has support for Trump's removal leading by 2% (47.8% to 46%), but RCP shows support for Trump's removal trailing by 1% (47% to 48.1%).
No matter which percentage you need to embrace, the best part is this. Donald Trump's impeachment and removal is more popular than Trump has ever been.
You: "A 55% poll result is validated by other polls of 50% 'or higher'. Why be nit picky?"
Also you: "Don't imply 538 validates the RCP result of 47% when the 538 poll could be rounded up all the way to 48%."
And you: "The outlier I like, 55%, is not to be judged by how far away it is from the 538 average, as outliers you like are to be judged, but instead by any handful of polls I can find that are closer to it. In a situation like this, shove the wonderful 538 methodology."
Stellar reply. There's less ducking and hiding in the Witness Protection Program.
You know, when you don't actually have a cogent response, the sensible thing to do is not respond.
The 538 impeachment average already includes multiple 54% polls. Adding one poll that came out 1% higher isn't going to appreciably change their numbers. But adding the un-included polls to the RCP average would change theirs. Also, the current difference between the two polls isn't 1%, it's 3%. Which wouldn't be momentous for a single poll, but does have significance with a large sampling. Do I really need to explain to you what an average is?
In case you missed it: According to RCP's more forgiving model, Donald Trump's impeachment and removal is more popular than Trump has ever been.
Pretending my response isn't "cogent" does not get you out of your predicament. Nor does pretending I'm the one doing the ducking and hiding. Project all you want, it avails you nothing.
The 538 impeachment average already includes multiple 54% polls. Apparently you don't even see that this fact makes your position even worse, i.e., 538 shows 47.8% for impeachment despite the inclusion of the outliers. You'd be better off if 538 came up with its number while ignoring them - then you could complain that Nate Silver is ignoring outlier data you like.
Since my main point was so good, and so ignored, here it is again:
"The outlier I like, 55%, is not to be judged by how far away it is from the 538 average, as outliers you like are to be judged, but instead by any handful of polls I can find that are closer to it. In a situation like this, shove the wonderful 538 methodology."
Yikes, maybe you really don't grasp what an average is. 538 also includes several polls in where approval for impeachment is 35%, 36% and 37%.
538 also includes several polls in which opposition to impeachment is 50% or higher. (So you understand, "or higher" means that some of the numbers are bigger than 50.)
2019 was the best. Your New Year's resolution should be "Be more cogent."
Yikes, you actually seem to be arguing that because your 55% poll is included in the 538 average, it cannot be considered an unreliable outlier. I wouldn't know where to begin with that other than to recommend a course in statistics. But apparently I grasp what an average is better than you. As in, an average score of 47.8% that includes 55%, 54%, 53%, and thereabouts, is going to be higher, that is, higher than it would be if it did not include those entries.
Which makes 55%'s distance from 47.8% a quite significant thing, and it's why your touting of the 55% outlier is transparently hypocritical and laughable. But then, we've established that your favored outlier is not to be judged by how it compares to the 538 average, but rather by how it compares to any handful of polls you can find that are closer to it. Shove 538's methodology.
Okay, I've been holding back the punchline to your rinky-dink rant. Since you're only repeating yourself, it's time.
The 55% poll is not yet included in 538's impeachment average.
Another twentieth of a percent, here we come!
The 55% poll is not yet included in 538's impeachment average.
Boy, the way that zinger invalidates my point is stunning! And funny too, because it was a punchline. Suddenly 55% looks like less of an outlier because it's not in Nate's stable of polls.
Just remain in your protected world and continue to mumble like Dustin. It's safer there. And don't forget to tell Nate to shove his methodology.
Despite all the tire tracks I left across your body this year, I'm an excellent driver.
The way the events of 2019 and our friendly chats panned out for you, it's not surprising that you'd retreat to the memory of 1980s movie references.
Alas, you remain Robert De Niro in "Raging Bull" (1980). Absorbing shattering blows, arms limp at your side, face pulped, still rigidly insisting, "Hey, Ray. Ray. Hey, Ray. I never went down, Ray. You never got me down, Ray. You hear me, Ray? You never got me down. You hear me?"
https://hornedmajesty666.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/rb.jpg
I know exactly how Tom Cruise felt...
Short and damaged?
You weren't supposed to adopt Tom Cruise's dialogue from Top Gun (1986) as your guiding standard in life: "If you think, you're dead."
Just for laughs, there's a new 56% impeachment poll out. And 538.com's average has shoved the methodology up to 49.5% for removal.
But don't feel too bad for yourself — the real victim of Trump's terrible polling is General Soleimani.
Sorry, as of JAN. 3, 2020, AT 6:31 PM (well before your comment), 538 shows 47% for removal, which is lower than biased RCP's 47.3%.
Just stop lying.
You might want to take a closer look, Top Gun. 49.5% for removal. 52.3% for impeachment. So bend over, lube up, and shove 538's methodology.
Don't lose hope. The Soleimani Surge may prove to be bigger than the Baghdadi Bounce. (It couldn't possibly be smaller.)
Let me repeat.
Just. Stop. Lying.
Should I tell you how the 538 website works?
Should I explain where a trained monkey could locate the 49.5% and the 52.3% (still the respective removal/impeachment polling averages, as of 5 seconds ago)?
Or should I let you dangle?
And you think you can "Heh."
I'd rather you explain why you can't read a graph. But that's okay. 538 has your handicap covered with plain, readable text (from an article, also Jan 3):
"[J]ust 47 percent of Americans favor removing Trump."
Dangle that.
You know you're dominating when your article link carries the title "Our Poll Finds A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trump’s Removal".
Better yet, the article link includes a fresh 57% poll supporting impeachment. Just. Stop. Outlying.
As of early January 6th, each of the various 538.com impeachment averages remains in its same spot: 49.4% (all polls), 52.3% (begin/approve impeachment process) and 49.5% (impeachment/removal). As does your favored but still awful 47.0% (removal only). Ignoring three of them doesn't make them go away.
You've found that last number. But you'll need your full Restaurant Puzzle Place Mat detective skills to locate them all!
That's right. 47% is 538's January 3rd methodology result for removal. When did I represent it as anything different?
You, on the other hand, triumphantly presented 49.5% as...well, in your own words: "538.com's average has shoved the methodology up to 49.5% for removal.", and "You might want to take a closer look, Top Gun. 49.5% for removal."
After I vigorously slapped you around about that, with your response being an attempt to gaslight me into disbelieving my own lying eyes, you now realize you're cornered and have to admit I was right, but are trying to save face by implying you were reporting your vaunted 49.5% figure as "impeachment/removal" all along.
I think we could safely say this thread has not been your finest hour.
Post a Comment