Wednesday, November 07, 2018

A very typical midterm

In the past, I would have stayed up late but I just started a new job...

That said: I think it's fair to say there was no "blue wave" this year.  The typical loss for the President's party in the first midterm is 28 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate.  At this point in the night, it looks like the Democrats will pick up 30+ seats in the House (to gain control) but lose four seats in the Senate.  (AZ still in play).

But as Chris Wallace noted: the Democrats had an unusual number of Senate seats to defend this year so it's not surprising that the GOP picked off a couple of Senate seats in red-leaning states.

So Republicans won in Republican-leaning states and Democrats picked up House seats where the Republicans were vulnerable.  So: expected but not "wavy".


Anonymous said...

The last forty years of midterm House pickup totals for the non-presidential party: 13, 63, 30, -8, -5, 54, 8, 5, 26, 15.

The 2018 Democrats will have the third most seat pickups in two generations, but some say it's "not a wave." Tough crowd, tough crowd.

The typical loss for the President's party in the first midterm is 28 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate.

That stat leans heavily on Clinton and Obama. How heavily? For Nixon, Carter, Reagan and both Bushes, their average loss in their first term was 10 seats in the House. Go back to Eisenhower and the damage rises to 15 seats. Go further back to FDR and it's 17 seats. Go as far back as Coolidge, and it's 13 seats.

Robert Fisk said...

Next up - The Ruth Bader Ginsburg Watch. If the judgeship opens up my prediction is the Democrats will announce that the House should participate in the advice and consent role, because otherwise democracy means nothing.

Anonymous said...

Yet more necrophiliac wish fantasy from the party of values.

Ever see the movie "The Ladykillers"?

Robert Fisk said...

Ever see the movie "The Thing That Couldn't Die"?

Anonymous said...

I think it's fair to say there was no "blue wave" this year.

The last time we had an economy this good during a midterm was 1998. That election turned out a little differently than this one, with Clinton's party actually picking up 5 House seats.

On top of the House, the GOP reportedly lost ground in all 50 states yesterday, including losing their majority in several state legislatures.

The Senate map was so unprecedentedly favorable that last year McConnell was -- and not incorrectly -- discussing the possibility of an 8-pickup election, and the coveted 60th seat. Now he's hoping that the uncounted Arizona ballots will get him halfway there.

How many parties in power have done this poorly in November during good economic times?

Eric said...

We've been hearing about this epic repudiation of Donald Trump for a year now and the resulting fizzle left Van Jones "heartbroken", CNN was morose, and even James Carville said there's no blue wave.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, that must be why Trump was so laid back and fulfilled today.

The once-in-a century Senate map was squandered... and that's where the POSITIVE news for Republicans was.

House control starring Chairman Schiff and Chairwoman Waters, all four anti-gerrymandering measures passed in CO, MI, MD and WV (didja happen to notice those Pennsylvania House flips?), Medicaid expansion passed in three red states, Florida's felon voter law repealed, hundreds and hundreds of state legislature pickups in 50 of 50 states, with seven chambers flipped blue, two new supermajorities, four GOP supermajorities broken, and nothing moving in the other direction. Heartbreaking, simply heartbreaking.

Not a wave? Fine, not a wave. Call it a puddle, call it Jimmy Carter, call it splunge. Whatever gets you through the night. You choose the word, we'll take the results. And the good Lord willing, please give America another failed, fizzled un-wave exactly like it in 2020.

Robert Fisk said...

Not a wave? Fine, not a wave. Call it a puddle, call it Jimmy Carter, call it splunge.
I wonder if the Hall Monitor realizes that he's literally upbraiding his own side with that argument. While pretending he's addressing the right.

But it's a comfort to know that in the end, it doesn't take much in the way of actual election results to satisfy the Monitor. Perhaps he could open up a consolation center for the likes of Jones, Carville, Tapper, Politico, et al.

Anonymous said...

A half-hearted "that election didn't hurt a bit" comeback is triply comical coming from Mr. I Can't Possibly Say Anything So I.

Robert Fisk said...

"I Can't Possibly Say Anything So I"

Can I print up some t-shirts with that on the front, to amaze everyone?

Anonymous said...

Just make one T-shirt, and wear nothing else until it's a tattered rag. Like the one reply itself.

Elections still falling into the Democratic column. Most gains since Watergate. And amid all the pickups in all 50 states, we never even mentioned the governors. How's that "No Blue Wave!" binky taste?