Camden's murder rate went down "22 percent over the summer months"? From 2005-2012, the average total of murders in that city was 43 a year. So what's that big non-unionized summer shutdown, 3 or 4 fewer?
Also, for someone who writes skeptically about deliberate manipulation of the debt numbers, the unemployment rate, and so on, your faith in reported local crime rates is poignant.
The sharp statistician may spot a certain rate jump in there.
Totals aren't broken down by season, but murder rates typically go up in summertime. So let's arbitrarily decide that two-fifths of the killings were in summers, with one-fifth in each of the other three seasons. That un conservative estimate gives us summer Camden killings of 14, 14, 19 and 27 over the past four years. Now, in 2013, the rate has gone down 22 percent (from by far the largest total). So instead of 27 killings, there've been 21... which would be a higher amount than in any of the previous years when a unionized work force was supposedly failing the city. Was it right-to-work elves in the night who "dropped" the murder rate from 54 to 34 in 2008-09?
It's basically impossible for a city to fudge murder totals to any degree. "Crime rates," however (e.g. assaults, break-ins, rapes, car thefts, arrests) are routinely rewritten to come up with the "right" result, in city after city, from coast to coast, under Democratic and Republican leadership. It ain't hard to Google examples of disputed or falsified stats.
But let's say Camden crime really is down 15% on the dot. Think it could have anything to do with the outlier spike of 2012? Because "down to the second-highest levels" could easily be rephrased "next to last."
Only you can choose what to doubt, and what to embrace unquestioningly. A sudden meme that just so happens to perfectly celebrate a partisan policy talking point might be a good place to proceed with caution. (How did conservatives' impulsive one-night stand with "60 Minutes" work out?)
OK, how about one cheer for accountability? Camden is #1 in violent crimes per capita. Maybe sacking the police force that shows up only 70% of the time is a step in the right direction.
I know accountability is a foreign concept for you guys when you have a President who seems bewildered by his own failures but "nobody's madder than him."
Making big assumptions about small sample sizes can lead to illogical leaps.
Camden, New Jersey recently displaced the longtime #1 violent crime per capita city, Saginaw, Michigan. Although it held the #1 spot throughout, Saginaw's crime numbers went down from 2008 to 2009. And then went down again from 2009 to 2010... and again from 2010 to 2011, and again from 2011 to 2012. This happened despite Saginaw NOT firing & replacing its unionized police force,
Saginaw's overall crime rate dropped 19% in 2009, and another 11% in 2010. It must have dropped by more than that in some particular season of the year. What if Daily Kos and Democratic Underground and Talking Points Memo seized upon those Saginaw numbers and cited them as statistical proof that unionized law enforcement lowers crime? You'd have been on board with that analysis?
But maybe the 325th-largest city is the bellwether for the nation. And maybe, very small shifts within small sets of statistics from small cities really are cataclysmic earthquakes of accountability. Especially when Obama is so irritating.
Or maybe red mice instinctively respond affirmatively to yummy, yummy pellets.
Blue mice have been known to do the same. If you think this common human failing might sometimes apply to yourself, maybe you should take accountability for it.
How very interesting. Meanwhile in Camden, where the cops rolled out of bed only every 2/3 days, getting rid of the unionized cops allowed the city to add 100+ non-unionized police officers.
They claim that overall crime has dropped by 15% but you know those Camden cops lie worse than Saginaw cops and Atlanta school superindendents.
The Viking Pundit B.S. detector. So finely attuned to Obama's infuriating turns of phrase. So soft and squishy for each new passalong conservative chattermeme.
getting rid of the unionized cops allowed the city to add 100+ non-unionized police officers.
As part of budget cuts in two years ago, Camden fired more than 100 police officers. Spoo-oo-ooky.
They claim that overall crime has dropped by 15% but you know those Camden cops lie
As opposed to the most honest people in the whole world: fat guys running for president.
Also: "The reason, officials say, is that generous union contracts have made it financially impossible to keep enough officers on the street. So in November, Camden, which has already had substantial police layoffs, will begin terminating the remaining 273 officers and give control to a new county force. The move, officials say, will free up millions to hire a larger, nonunionized force of 400 officers to safeguard the city, which is also the nation’s poorest."
"The reason, officials say, is... The move, officials say, will..."
Thank goodness those officials aren't President Obama. Whenever he say, he has a one-sided agenda to spin.
Viking Pundit statistical analysis, October 2012: "All of the polls are wrong. Romney is winning. Nate Silver is beclowning himself. Get ready for a lot of ridicule, Nate. I tried to warn you, buddy. Math is hard. You need to break the news to liberals slowly, delicately, in stages - until reality sinks in.”
Viking Pundit statistical analysis, November 2013: "Abbreviating the timeframe, comparing a small difference to a spike number, expressing that difference as a rate stat, ignoring the fact that it’s not even the largest such rate stat in the last couple of years, and extrapolating total vindication for a Republican wish list policy... now, that's just good analysis. I know this because the people whose political careers depend on selling their idea told me so. Christie ‘16!"
Skepticism about daily waves of numbers coming from all directions in 2012. Absolute trust for a press release in 2013. Now that's hope and change.
Camden, which has already had substantial police layoffs, will begin terminating the remaining 273 officers... and hire a larger, nonunionized force of 400 officers
"Since the city laid off nearly half its police force in January [2011], the mayor and police chief have tried to stay positive... But after the layoffs of 163 police officers, Camden is feeling the impact... The layoffs left Camden with 204 police officers, its smallest department since 1949."
--The lying liars at the NY Times, 2011.
I can’t verify this until we hear it from a Christie spokeman, but 163 + 204 = 367. The new Camden county police had 280 officers working as of September 2013.
280 is more than 204, give or take. We don’t want to think too hard about how much more, compared with that 15% crime rate drop. Especially not a 15% drop from an all-time high that - in one of life’s inexplicable coincidences - occurred at the same time that Camden’s police force was halved.
Anyhow, what the 2011-12 crime levels might have to do with subsequent rate drops is also far too complex to unravel. The only thing mathematicians can say for certain is that union-busting did it all.
Yeah, one of those officials was the mayor of Camden who admitted he/she ("Dana") couldn't rein in spending on the police force, much less get them to show up for work. It seems that breaking the all-time record for homicide in 2012 was a catalyst for action.
But that's only like a 33% increase from 2011 and 80% more than 2010. Now homicides are down because Chris Christie is hiding the bodies.
I might say that Obama's promise that Americans would save $2500 on their insurance only to see it go up $3000 is an example of bad math ignored. But then like the Saginaw police department, Chris Christie, and Mitt Romney, it all amounts to straw men when your main argument falls apart.
It seems that breaking the all-time record for homicide in 2012 was a catalyst for action.
Oh yes, it seems that way. Until you hear that Gov. Christie was publicly advocating the Camden change in early 2011, and pressing for it behind the scenes before that. He also wanted the identical policy applied to dozens of other NJ cities. I wonder whether they all broke their homicide records?
I might say that Obama's promise that Americans would save $2500 on their insurance only to see it go up $3000 is an example of bad math ignored. But then like the Saginaw police department, Chris Christie, and Mitt Romney, it all amounts to straw men when your main argument falls apart.
Owww, that really hit home. You got me, Archimedes. Comparing the worst crime city's proportional crime stats to the other worst crime city's proportional crime stats, pffft, what a weak and pathetic "straw man." Obama health care statements, though, that's rock solid logic. And let's not forget Atlanta school superintendents.
The Nate Silver quotes may have been a little strawy, but they show the danger of really, really, really wanting a number to be true.
Okay, I've had my fun rubbing your nose in the math and its context, while adding a little snark. But it's this simple. Flip the facts. If Camden's crime rate had gone up 15% during a few months in the summer of '13, or there'd been a whole four extra murders rather than four fewer, but Democrats jubilantly declared that the numbers proved non-union policing was thus an abject failure, you'd have laughed at the stupidity of such a premature claim based entirely on such a tiny shift.
And if your laughter would've been justified then...
13 comments:
Camden's murder rate went down "22 percent over the summer months"? From 2005-2012, the average total of murders in that city was 43 a year. So what's that big non-unionized summer shutdown, 3 or 4 fewer?
Also, for someone who writes skeptically about deliberate manipulation of the debt numbers, the unemployment rate, and so on, your faith in reported local crime rates is poignant.
"On any given day, 30 percent of the force was absent because of the liberal sick policies."
And overall crime is down 15%. Which number should I doubt?
Camden murders, 2008: 54
Camden murders, 2009: 34
Camden murders, 2010: 37
Camden murders, 2011: 47
Camden murders, 2012: 67
The sharp statistician may spot a certain rate jump in there.
Totals aren't broken down by season, but murder rates typically go up in summertime. So let's arbitrarily decide that two-fifths of the killings were in summers, with one-fifth in each of the other three seasons. That un conservative estimate gives us summer Camden killings of 14, 14, 19 and 27 over the past four years. Now, in 2013, the rate has gone down 22 percent (from by far the largest total). So instead of 27 killings, there've been 21... which would be a higher amount than in any of the previous years when a unionized work force was supposedly failing the city. Was it right-to-work elves in the night who "dropped" the murder rate from 54 to 34 in 2008-09?
It's basically impossible for a city to fudge murder totals to any degree. "Crime rates," however (e.g. assaults, break-ins, rapes, car thefts, arrests) are routinely rewritten to come up with the "right" result, in city after city, from coast to coast, under Democratic and Republican leadership. It ain't hard to Google examples of disputed or falsified stats.
But let's say Camden crime really is down 15% on the dot. Think it could have anything to do with the outlier spike of 2012? Because "down to the second-highest levels" could easily be rephrased "next to last."
Only you can choose what to doubt, and what to embrace unquestioningly. A sudden meme that just so happens to perfectly celebrate a partisan policy talking point might be a good place to proceed with caution. (How did conservatives' impulsive one-night stand with "60 Minutes" work out?)
OK, how about one cheer for accountability? Camden is #1 in violent crimes per capita. Maybe sacking the police force that shows up only 70% of the time is a step in the right direction.
I know accountability is a foreign concept for you guys when you have a President who seems bewildered by his own failures but "nobody's madder than him."
Making big assumptions about small sample sizes can lead to illogical leaps.
Camden, New Jersey recently displaced the longtime #1 violent crime per capita city, Saginaw, Michigan. Although it held the #1 spot throughout, Saginaw's crime numbers went down from 2008 to 2009. And then went down again from 2009 to 2010... and again from 2010 to 2011, and again from 2011 to 2012. This happened despite Saginaw NOT firing & replacing its unionized police force,
Saginaw's overall crime rate dropped 19% in 2009, and another 11% in 2010. It must have dropped by more than that in some particular season of the year. What if Daily Kos and Democratic Underground and Talking Points Memo seized upon those Saginaw numbers and cited them as statistical proof that unionized law enforcement lowers crime? You'd have been on board with that analysis?
But maybe the 325th-largest city is the bellwether for the nation. And maybe, very small shifts within small sets of statistics from small cities really are cataclysmic earthquakes of accountability. Especially when Obama is so irritating.
Or maybe red mice instinctively respond affirmatively to yummy, yummy pellets.
Blue mice have been known to do the same. If you think this common human failing might sometimes apply to yourself, maybe you should take accountability for it.
How very interesting. Meanwhile in Camden, where the cops rolled out of bed only every 2/3 days, getting rid of the unionized cops allowed the city to add 100+ non-unionized police officers.
They claim that overall crime has dropped by 15% but you know those Camden cops lie worse than Saginaw cops and Atlanta school superindendents.
Great response. Say it a fourth time.
The Viking Pundit B.S. detector. So finely attuned to Obama's infuriating turns of phrase. So soft and squishy for each new passalong conservative chattermeme.
getting rid of the unionized cops allowed the city to add 100+ non-unionized police officers.
As part of budget cuts in two years ago, Camden fired more than 100 police officers. Spoo-oo-ooky.
They claim that overall crime has dropped by 15% but you know those Camden cops lie
As opposed to the most honest people in the whole world: fat guys running for president.
If you like your unionized police force, you can keep your unionized police force.
Also:
"The reason, officials say, is that generous union contracts have made it financially impossible to keep enough officers on the street. So in November, Camden, which has already had substantial police layoffs, will begin terminating the remaining 273 officers and give control to a new county force. The move, officials say, will free up millions to hire a larger, nonunionized force of 400 officers to safeguard the city, which is also the nation’s poorest."
-Lying liars at the NY Times
"The reason, officials say, is... The move, officials say, will..."
Thank goodness those officials aren't President Obama. Whenever he say, he has a one-sided agenda to spin.
Viking Pundit statistical analysis, October 2012: "All of the polls are wrong. Romney is winning. Nate Silver is beclowning himself. Get ready for a lot of ridicule, Nate. I tried to warn you, buddy. Math is hard. You need to break the news to liberals slowly, delicately, in stages - until reality sinks in.”
Viking Pundit statistical analysis, November 2013: "Abbreviating the timeframe, comparing a small difference to a spike number, expressing that difference as a rate stat, ignoring the fact that it’s not even the largest such rate stat in the last couple of years, and extrapolating total vindication for a Republican wish list policy... now, that's just good analysis. I know this because the people whose political careers depend on selling their idea told me so. Christie ‘16!"
Skepticism about daily waves of numbers coming from all directions in 2012. Absolute trust for a press release in 2013. Now that's hope and change.
Camden, which has already had substantial police layoffs, will begin terminating the remaining 273 officers... and hire a larger, nonunionized force of 400 officers
"Since the city laid off nearly half its police force in January [2011], the mayor and police chief have tried to stay positive... But after the layoffs of 163 police officers, Camden is feeling the impact... The layoffs left Camden with 204 police officers, its smallest department since 1949."
--The lying liars at the NY Times, 2011.
I can’t verify this until we hear it from a Christie spokeman, but 163 + 204 = 367. The new Camden county police had 280 officers working as of September 2013.
280 is more than 204, give or take. We don’t want to think too hard about how much more, compared with that 15% crime rate drop. Especially not a 15% drop from an all-time high that - in one of life’s inexplicable coincidences - occurred at the same time that Camden’s police force was halved.
Anyhow, what the 2011-12 crime levels might have to do with subsequent rate drops is also far too complex to unravel. The only thing mathematicians can say for certain is that union-busting did it all.
Yeah, one of those officials was the mayor of Camden who admitted he/she ("Dana") couldn't rein in spending on the police force, much less get them to show up for work. It seems that breaking the all-time record for homicide in 2012 was a catalyst for action.
But that's only like a 33% increase from 2011 and 80% more than 2010. Now homicides are down because Chris Christie is hiding the bodies.
I might say that Obama's promise that Americans would save $2500 on their insurance only to see it go up $3000 is an example of bad math ignored. But then like the Saginaw police department, Chris Christie, and Mitt Romney, it all amounts to straw men when your main argument falls apart.
It seems that breaking the all-time record for homicide in 2012 was a catalyst for action.
Oh yes, it seems that way. Until you hear that Gov. Christie was publicly advocating the Camden change in early 2011, and pressing for it behind the scenes before that. He also wanted the identical policy applied to dozens of other NJ cities. I wonder whether they all broke their homicide records?
I might say that Obama's promise that Americans would save $2500 on their insurance only to see it go up $3000 is an example of bad math ignored. But then like the Saginaw police department, Chris Christie, and Mitt Romney, it all amounts to straw men when your main argument falls apart.
Owww, that really hit home. You got me, Archimedes. Comparing the worst crime city's proportional crime stats to the other worst crime city's proportional crime stats, pffft, what a weak and pathetic "straw man." Obama health care statements, though, that's rock solid logic. And let's not forget Atlanta school superintendents.
The Nate Silver quotes may have been a little strawy, but they show the danger of really, really, really wanting a number to be true.
Okay, I've had my fun rubbing your nose in the math and its context, while adding a little snark. But it's this simple. Flip the facts. If Camden's crime rate had gone up 15% during a few months in the summer of '13, or there'd been a whole four extra murders rather than four fewer, but Democrats jubilantly declared that the numbers proved non-union policing was thus an abject failure, you'd have laughed at the stupidity of such a premature claim based entirely on such a tiny shift.
And if your laughter would've been justified then...
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