For all you Eeyores out there who think this election is going to be a squeaker: take heart. Today's Boston Globe has an article (behind pay wall) about the IHS Global Insight model that takes a handful of economic and political factors then calculates the incumbent's percentage of the vote:
The Lexington economic forecasting firm takes two economic indicators plus three political variables, plugs them into a formula, and out pops the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent party is expected to win. The formula has correctly predicted the outcome in 14 of the last 16 presidential elections.Indeed, most of the model's predictions have been within a percentage point and the worst miss was the 1972 election that underestimated Nixon's re-election share by 4.8%. And what does the model predict for The One?
The most recent update of the formula, using July economic data, shows President Obama losing decisively, with just over 45 percent of the popular vote.In other words: landslide territory for Romney. But if you want to go old-school, there's always the President's approval rating:
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.That's Rasmussen's poll. This morning, Gallup posted Obama's approval rating at 43%.
These numbers all predict a loss for Obama and America still has to digest the new benchmark of $16 trillion in debt and an unemployment rate that - at best - will stay at 8.3%. Have fun at your convention, Dems.