Sunday, September 02, 2012

Predictive model says: Obama's gonna lose

For all you Eeyores out there who think this election is going to be a squeaker: take heart.  Today's Boston Globe has an article (behind pay wall) about the IHS Global Insight model that takes a handful of economic and political factors then calculates the incumbent's percentage of the vote:
The Lexington economic forecasting firm takes two economic indicators plus three political variables, plugs them into a formula, and out pops the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent party is expected to win. The formula has correctly predicted the outcome in 14 of the last 16 presidential elections.
Indeed, most of the model's predictions have been within a percentage point and the worst miss was the 1972 election that underestimated Nixon's re-election share by 4.8%.  And what does the model predict for The One?
The most recent update of the formula, using July economic data, shows President Obama losing decisively, with just over 45 percent of the popular vote.
In other words: landslide territory for Romney.  But if you want to go old-school, there's always the President's approval rating:
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.
That's Rasmussen's poll.  This morning, Gallup posted Obama's approval rating at 43%.

These numbers all predict a loss for Obama and America still has to digest the new benchmark of $16 trillion in debt and an unemployment rate that - at best - will stay at 8.3%.  Have fun at your convention, Dems.


Uh huh. said...

55%. Fifty-five. For Mitt Romney. A 10-point win is coming, two months from now. Mitt Romney (R), 55%.

For all you Eeyores out there who think this election is going to be a squeaker: take heart.

“When you are a Bear of Very Little Brain, and you Think of Things, you find sometimes that a Thing which seemed very Thingish inside you is quite different when it gets out into the open and has other people looking at it.”

Anonymous said...


Kalashnikat said...

Clearly, Anonymous is a Bear of Very Little Brain...who was never read to as a child...

Anonymous said...

The Thing:
Barack Obama's on target to get just 45%, a tsunami of Reagan/FDR proportions.

When the Thing is spoken aloud, it suddenly seems like the ridiculous Thing it is. A complex concept for some, apparently.

If any of you think Mitt Romney has a prayer of getting 55% of the popular vote, I have a Heffalump to sell you.