Romney, I suppose - The Hill reports that Iowa's top newspaper has endorsed Mitt Romney. In related news, the Gingrich bubble has popped and Intrade has Romney well in the lead for the Republican nomination. I'm not a big fan, but I think Mitt has the best chance of all the GOP nominees to beat Obama. So...hooray.
Extra - Here's David Paul Kuhn on RCP: "It's Obama, stupid: GOP will rally for Romney (or whomever)." As usual, my vote in Massachusetts will be pivotal.
22 comments:
Mitt Romney having the best chance of all the GOP nominees to beat Obama is like saying Alvin has the best chance of all the Chipmunks to win the 2012 Academy Award for Best Actor.
The analogy falls apart because some people like Alvin.
Are you saying that Obama is not vulnerable in this election?
Oh my.
Obama's going to waltz in, and every credible or attractive GOP figure knows it. To a man, they've left a wakeup call for 2016.
With the Republican race down to John Kerry Jr. and a lesser Barry Goldwater, the remaining question is to see who gets the nomination. When we know that, we'll know whether Obama's going to win by 4% or 9%.
OK, I'll ignore all this:
A new Associated Press-GfK poll found the following:
* President Obama’s overall job approval stands at a new low, with 44 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.
* The president’s standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove.
* For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term.
* About two-thirds of white voters without college degrees say Obama should be a one-term president, while 33 percent of those voters say he should get another four years. Among white voters with a college degree, 57 percent said Obama should be voted out of office.
* Obama’s approval rating on the handling of the economy is 39 percent approve while 60 percent disapprove.
* Only 26 percent said the United States is headed in the right direction while 70 percent said the country is moving in the wrong direction.
*About half of the respondents oppose the health care law and support for it dipped to 29 percent from 36 percent in June. Just 15 percent said the federal government should have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance. Only 50 percent of Democrats support the health care law, compared with 59 percent of Democrats last June. And only about a quarter of independents back the law.
Well then, it's all over for Barack Obama as soon as Generic Republican Opponent enters the race. Let us know when Generic Republican Opponent knocks Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich out of the race. Because both of those warm-blooded opponents are losing to unpopular, unapproved Obama in the polls.
You know who else got his butt kicked by Generic Opponent? George W. Bush in 2003. Bill Clinton in 1995. Ronald Reagan in 1983. It's hard to find one of these speculative polls where the same result doesn't happen.
Actually, there is one that comes to mind. George Bush Sr. whomped on Generic Democratic Opponent in 1991.
You make a good point. After all, there were lots of Presidents with lower approval ratings this far out from the election.
There was Carter and....that's all.
You mean Jimmy Carter, the despised outcast who was beating Ronald Reagan in October 1980, according to the all-revealing polls? Build your world on polls and you can expect to suffer some bad days... just ask John Kerry about his exit numbers.
Or you could ask Ronald Reagan about his 35% Presidential approval rating the year before he won 49 states. Reagan's saving grace was that he was always personally liked, even when his policies or circumstances were less popular. Reagan was also, even at his approval depths, easily more popular than Congress or his actual prospective opponent Mondale. Do you know anybody else like that?
Abstractly, Obama's got trouble. Luckily for him, he gets to run in the real world against a real opponent. Fill in this blank: Mr. ________ will defeat Mr. Obama.
"Obama"
Perry! Wait, make it Gingrich! I mean Daniels, uh, Christie... no, Ryan! Save us, Aquaman!
I'd fill the blank with "& Mrs. Common Sense."
The correct answer is Mr. Rogers, because anyone who thinks Obama's going to lose to any of these guys is a resident of The Land Of Make-Believe.
One thing I KNOW--we are going to find out in November. All the assured proclamations from both sides are blowing in the wind--and the vigor behind the claims has no correlation with their accuracy.
Real bad timing on the "approval rating" shoutout.
"It's Obama, stupid: GOP will rally for Romney (or whomever)."
Nobody has ever doubted that in the end, Republican and right-leaning independent voters will all vote for the Republican, no matter his identity. That gets Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich or a small red apple to 43 or 44%.
Parties have "rallied for" McCain and Kerry and Dole and Bush '92 and other candidates they disliked. They've clapped for the concession speeches, too.
True that. "They've" also been disillusioned by the reality of a promising candidate's actual leadership(or lack thereof), and sent them packing--Jimmy Carter comes to mind.
Ah, but Jimmy Carter was running against a particular person that year. Someone arguably better at politics than even the great Mitt Romney.
That's very true. Of course, Reagan won 489 Electoral votes, while Carter won 49. Reagan won 44 states to 6 for Carter, and Carter got 41% of the vote. I don't the Republican's "particular person" will need quite that large a margin.
Sorry--I meant to write "I don't THINK the Republican's..."
The various polls concur that Mitt Romney has less support among Republicans than John McCain did in January 2008, and less national support than McCain did as well. So all Romney needs to do is pick up 75% to 80% of 2011's undeclared bloc, and he'll pull into a tie with the most personally well-liked politician in the country and his billion-dollar election chest.
Yup, it's Jimmy Carter all over again.
"So all Romney needs to do is pick up 75% to 80% of 2011's undeclared bloc, and he'll pull into a tie with the most personally well-liked politician in the country and his billion-dollar election chest."
Oh, I didn't fully understand that I was exchanging views with a Neptunian. I was speaking from an Earthling's perspective. I won't waste our time further.
Bffzzt! Grasping this... is... one small step... for a liberal... one... fzzt!...giant leap for a conservative.
Go ahead. Study the head-to-head poll matchups. Compare the distinct and separate "personal likeability" numbers. Make them work for you, somehow. Find the GOP advantage.
I don't mind holding my breath while I wait, because the atmosphere here on Neptune is mostly hydrogen. But it's still easier to swallow than Mitt Romney's "path to victory."
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