Thursday, March 03, 2011

It's electric! - Megan McArdle reports that Chevrolet has sold nearly 1,000 Volts. Rising gas prices should push sales of electric cars into the stratosphere, maybe four-digits.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

The bailout boys still have that great GM feeling?

Vroom! said...

Megan McArdle's comparison to the Edsel is a poor one. The Edsel was heavily pre-advertised (with blurred glimpses of the car) as being a brand new kind of vehicle. When it arrived, however, it had the same look and engineering as many other models. This failure to meet the hype damaged the Edsel's desirability, and a slumping economy finished the job.

Also, first-year sales for the Edsel were very good, starting strongly because of the blanket promotion. The Edsel got less successful as time went on, and Year Three was the end. The Volt has been available for less than 2 months. And many people were openly questioning last year why GM was under-advertising it.

Making the Edsel/Volt comparison shows that the writer knows more about easy punchlines than they do about cars.

Jumping the gun said...

The Volt is only being sold at certain locations in 7 states. The other 43 states have zero Volts for sale, and residents of those states aren't permitted (by GM) to cross state lines to purchase one.

Until the car goes nationwide later this year, this is a little like saying that the Broadway production of "Wicked" at the Gershwin Theatre is a flop because it's not selling anywhere near as many tickets as "Justin Bieber in 3-D."

Toyota was criticized by some for investing in hybrid cars in the 1990s, when oil prices were low. The one millionth Prius was purchased in April, 2008.

Bram said...

The Volt is the most publicized and hyped car in the world. The problem is that it sucks and is overpriced by at least $20k. I’m sure various government agencies will have to buy them but sales to individuals will never be, more than a trickle even with massive tax incentives.

Without government support (bailouts, fleet purchases, and tax breaks) this POS would never have been considered for mass production.

Yam said...

Yeah, the Volt, which was available in Washington D.C. from day one, has clearly had its sales figures to date propped up by big government "fleet purchases."

Also, the car's production predates the auto industry bailout.

You don't know what you're talking about.

Bram said...

No, the car's design predates the bailout. Without the bailout, it probably remains a design only. Production is just coming online now.

So you think a $42K+ crap box that gets milage in the 30's is going to be a big seller? Because I can plug it in all night, drive up my electric bill, and go a few miles without the gas motor running?

I could buy a BMW 335d that gets the same mileage and does 0-60 in under 6. I could buy 2 diesel VW Golfs that get far better mileage - or three Mazda 2's. What a joke.

Yam said...

"No, the car's design predates the bailout. Without the bailout, it probably remains a design only."

So well spotted. Because as we know, design and production are totally separate and unrelated areas in the manufacturing chain. Don't you believe those lies about "Engineering Design & Production" departments in such liberal rags as "Automotive Design and Production Magazine.

And those announcements more than 4 years ago about the Volt going into production and the 2010 target date, that was just meaningless jibber-jabber. Publicly-traded companies commonly promise new product lines and then change their minds, and nobody reacts in any significant way. A car model does not exist until you can smell the leatherette detailing.

What a blow it must be to GM to learn that you will not be buying a Volt. I can't understand why they'd bother making another after that news bulletin. If only we could live in a world with different varieties of cars featuring different attributes for the different tastes and needs of different purchasers. Alas, that wish will forever be a crazy dream...

Bram said...

I'm sure they will jump for joy when you walk into the Chevy dealership and put your $43k (plus tax - income tax credits) on the counter. (How much are they losing per Volt sold?)

I'll wave as I pass in my BMW that cost $7k less.

Go to any car show and you will seem many designs that never get produced. Sometimes the innovations get incoprporated into production cars, sometimes not.

I keep hearing about diesel designs from Honda, Subaru and other manufacturers - but they never show up in the showroom because they can't make it past U.S. regulators (despite being sold in Europe) at a reasonable cost. The difference is they are for-profit companies.

Yam said...

That final punchline would have been a more devastating zinger one year ago, before GM's net profit improved by $25 billion. (Comedy is timing.)

How many car shows showcase the designs for unproduced cars that had been officially announced as upcoming models for the year 20__?

We're not talking spec screenplays here. We're talking future market share. The future's not here quite yet, but let's not be hasty... the only fair way to judge any vehicle's ultimate success or total failure is give it the full eight weeks. Maybe nine weeks, if we're feeling giddy.

Sorry your former associates didn't roll over and die. Sorry they're back in the black despite those awful regulations and the hated bailout, and those devilish union employees (who just got a non-contracted $4,300 bonus from their no-profit company).

There are approximately 20 diesel models that are already available in the U.S., or will be by summertime. They're all failures, even the ones that aren't for sale yet.

Bram said...

Every diesel car available in the U.S. is coming from Germany – even though every major car manufacturer sells diesels in Europe. BMW / VW / Mercedes are the only ones to successfully run the EPA blockade so far.

Without the feds and states taxing diesel far more than gasoline and creating a nightmare of conflicting regulatory hurdles for diesel cars, they would absolutely sell in large numbers in the U.S. Hybrid sales would take a massive hit if the 75mpg Polo – or the 65 mpg Ford Fiesta was available.

As for being failures, simply not possible in business terms. All of them have already recouped their development costs in Europe. They have already succeeded and any sales in the U.S. is just topping. And don’t tell my brother, he loves his diesel Jetta. My father is looking at the 335d – very fast and efficient. I hope he gets it.

Yam said...

Mmm, yes. In the wake of the premature claim of the Volt's "failure" after less than 8 weeks, declaring the failure of the 0-week diesels was what's known as a "joke."

"BMW / VW / Mercedes are the only ones to successfully run the EPA blockade so far."

If by "successfully run the EPA blockade," you mean "demonstrate that a company can abide by the stricter environmental regulations and still, impossibly, make money," then yes.

And in America's case, "stricter environmental regulations" means having any CO2 emission restrictions at all.

Bram said...

The EPA doesn't regulate CO2 - the Europeans do, which is why diesels flourish there. Being more efficient, they emit less CO2 than comparable gas vehicles.

The EPA set very stringent particle emissions standards for diesels - that is the problem.

Anonymous said...

You've got it flipped. There are no limits or regulations on vehicular CO2 emissions in Europe. About 4-5 years ago, the EU announced its intention to propose a framework for encouraging manufacturers to voluntarily meet certain targets in the future. They'd also like a unicorn.

America's CO2 regulations are legislated because if they weren't, the EPA can unilaterally impose them.

http://www.epa.gov/nsr/ghgdocs/StabenowBiomass.pdf

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946095,00.html

Bram said...

No, I have it straight. The EPA cannot regulate automobile CO2 emmissions. They are fighting with Congress for the authority to regulate CO2 in industries.

In the UK, your car is taxed on the level of CO2.

http://www.comcar.co.uk/dir1in.cfm

Your first link has nothing to do with the topic - biomass? Your second link doesn't work at all.

Anonymous said...

Europe is a little larger than the UK, and a tax isn't a stringent emissions standard, nor an emissions standard at all.

The EPA is not fighting with Congress "for the authority" to regulate CO2, Congress is fighting with the EPA to block, delay or lessen the EPA's implementation. Here's Congress trying to strip the EPA's power to do so, which confirms that the EPA currently has that power:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/06/10/us-usa-congress-epa-idUSTRE6595NO20100610

Although the above links were about the policy, you're right that they didn't explicitly address CO2 regulation as it would apply to vehicles. These do:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2009/05/omb-memo-criticizes-epa-co2-ruling/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/epa-co2-comment-deadline-for-cars-and-light-trucks-fast-approaching-get-your-comments-in-now/

http://ev.sae.org/article/9355

Bram said...

The future is so bright for GM, their CFO... whoops - he abruptly resigned. Hmm.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-chief-financial-officer-apf-3252837708.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode