Haw. Hyuk, hyuk. Tee hee. Better move up to breaking out the Transformers, as long as you're fantasizing.
Obama's margin is already up by 20 electoral votes according to Rasmussen, by 48 electoral votes according to Real Clear Politics, by 62 according to fivethirtyeight.com, and by 83 according to Electoral-Vote.com.
And by 80, according to the Viking Pundit-endorsed ElectionProjection.com.
Fivethirtyeight.com has a sweet table, in which they break down the current likelihood of 16 different outcomes. "Obama landslide" (26.13%) gets a higher percentage than all possible McCain victory scenarios combined (2.65% + 0.33% + 4.19% + 9.48% + 6.03% + 2.69% + 0.18% + 0.13%).
But it's early. Once the GOP's advantage in organization, money, newly-registered voters, and the political landscape all kick in this summer and autumn, the numbers are sure to change. Giggle.
Anon: yes it's early, and we can take comfort from history. At this time in the last election, John Kerry was even further ahead in the polls than Dubya.
Would this be the same mysterious Gallup that reports 46%-42% for Obama? http://www.gallup.com/poll/108019/Gallup-Daily-Race-Remains-Obama-46-McCain-42.aspx
In more even-steven news for the GOP, Gallup also registers 78% with a negative view of the economy, and 6% positive. 37% of voters identify themselves as Democrats, 28% Republican. Gallup shows Obama up by 13% with women voters. (WSJ/NBC has Obama up by 19% in the same category.) In 2004, Kerry beat Bush by 3% with women.
As Peggy Lee sang, "Everything's Moving Too Fast."
At this time in the last election, John Kerry was even further ahead in the polls than Dubya.
That's false. Harris had Bush up by 10 over Kerry (51%-41%) in June 2004. The Fox poll had Bush by 6 in June 2004. And Gallup had Bush by 1% in June 2004.
Yeah, I'll confess that I read that Kerry quote somewhere but didn't have the stamina to look it up.
Still, you raise a point, if inadvertently: with all the headwind against McCain (economy, GOP branding, enthusiasm) why isn't Obama much further ahead? I think it's because nobody really knows much about him. It's my belief (delusion?) that America won't like what they see once they get past the flashy smile.
Obama isn't further ahead yet because the GOP field was flattened by March, while Obama's been off to the side in a 50/50 prelim campaign which only ended 4 minutes ago. Now that's it's head to head, Obama will begin to pull away.
In relative terms, that is. He's not going to get an LBJian 60/40 popular margin. But Obama's going to have the incremental lead in almost all measures and the electoral college is going to be a rout.
The Quinnipiac poll now has Obama up big in Pennsylvania, and up by a little in Ohio and Florida. It's the first major poll to show Obama ahead in Florida, so other pollsters' results will be interesting.
Quinnipiac has been reliable on swing states in the past. According to them, the two candidates are even with male voters, while women are shifting big for Obama.
10 comments:
Who are the Wops then? And being of African descent wouldn't that make Sen. Obama a Western Oriented Gentleman?
Heh.
We'll bring a TANK.
Haw. Hyuk, hyuk. Tee hee. Better move up to breaking out the Transformers, as long as you're fantasizing.
Obama's margin is already up by 20 electoral votes according to Rasmussen, by 48 electoral votes according to Real Clear Politics, by 62 according to fivethirtyeight.com, and by 83 according to Electoral-Vote.com.
And by 80, according to the Viking Pundit-endorsed ElectionProjection.com.
Fivethirtyeight.com has a sweet table, in which they break down the current likelihood of 16 different outcomes. "Obama landslide" (26.13%) gets a higher percentage than all possible McCain victory scenarios combined (2.65% + 0.33% + 4.19% + 9.48% + 6.03% + 2.69% + 0.18% + 0.13%).
But it's early. Once the GOP's advantage in organization, money, newly-registered voters, and the political landscape all kick in this summer and autumn, the numbers are sure to change. Giggle.
Anon: yes it's early, and we can take comfort from history. At this time in the last election, John Kerry was even further ahead in the polls than Dubya.
Also, I never heard of 538, but here's a little outfit calling themselves "Gallup": "Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Race Reverts to Virtual Tie"
As Peggy Lee sang: is that all there is?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107854/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Race-Reverts-Virtual-Tie.aspx
Would this be the same mysterious Gallup that reports 46%-42% for Obama?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108019/Gallup-Daily-Race-Remains-Obama-46-McCain-42.aspx
In more even-steven news for the GOP, Gallup also registers 78% with a negative view of the economy, and 6% positive. 37% of voters identify themselves as Democrats, 28% Republican. Gallup shows Obama up by 13% with women voters. (WSJ/NBC has Obama up by 19% in the same category.) In 2004, Kerry beat Bush by 3% with women.
As Peggy Lee sang, "Everything's Moving Too Fast."
At this time in the last election, John Kerry was even further ahead in the polls than Dubya.
That's false. Harris had Bush up by 10 over Kerry (51%-41%) in June 2004. The Fox poll had Bush by 6 in June 2004. And Gallup had Bush by 1% in June 2004.
Yeah, I'll confess that I read that Kerry quote somewhere but didn't have the stamina to look it up.
Still, you raise a point, if inadvertently: with all the headwind against McCain (economy, GOP branding, enthusiasm) why isn't Obama much further ahead? I think it's because nobody really knows much about him. It's my belief (delusion?) that America won't like what they see once they get past the flashy smile.
Obama isn't further ahead yet because the GOP field was flattened by March, while Obama's been off to the side in a 50/50 prelim campaign which only ended 4 minutes ago. Now that's it's head to head, Obama will begin to pull away.
In relative terms, that is. He's not going to get an LBJian 60/40 popular margin. But Obama's going to have the incremental lead in almost all measures and the electoral college is going to be a rout.
The Quinnipiac poll now has Obama up big in Pennsylvania, and up by a little in Ohio and Florida. It's the first major poll to show Obama ahead in Florida, so other pollsters' results will be interesting.
Quinnipiac has been reliable on swing states in the past. According to them, the two candidates are even with male voters, while women are shifting big for Obama.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187
with all the headwind against McCain (economy, GOP branding, enthusiasm) why isn't Obama much further ahead?
Oooooooh.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465/page/1
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