Ohio doesn’t swing that way

As you may have noticed, I’ve been getting antsy about Bush’s prospects in Ohio. However, a couple of posts today helped to put my mind at ease.

First, there was this post on NRO’s Battlegrounders that makes some very compelling points, which I’ll summarize here:

1. Ohio is very much of a GOP state; it is not a swing state
2. Social-moral issues and security concerns have a huge impact
3. Newly registered voters will likely split 50-50
4. Bush will get a much larger percentage of independents
5. There is no enthusiasm for Kerry

Then I got caught up with Jay Cost’s post “Theorizing about the OH ground game.” He believes that the get-out-the-vote effort is much stronger for Republican than Democrats:

1. ABC News reported over the summer that Bush/Cheney ’04 was, as of the spring, organized “down to the precinct level.”
2. Other news outlets have implied that Bush/Cheney ’04 has been adopting what appears more and more to be the old Democratic “knock-and-drag" model.
3. KE04 has “outsourced” their GOTV work to outside organizations.

Finally, I checked back to one of Scott Elliot’s reasons for “Why Bush will win” and found #17:

17. Ohio's social conservatism
Since Florida and New Hampshire are no longer the targets they once were for the DNC, Ohio becomes the challenge of choice. On the surface, Bush's narrow victory there in 2000 would give Democrats hope of taking it from the GOP in 2004. However, the political winds are blowing in the GOP's favor this year. Ohio's recent passage of a ban on gay marriage highlights their socially conservative lean. The impending battle in the gay marriage debate will solidify and motivate social conservatives in this crucial state, resulting in a more difficult obstacle for the Democrats to overcome.

The only red states that have been trouble for Bush in 2000 are New Hampshire and Ohio. I’m fairly confident that Bush will win Florida again, so Ohio is the key to the kingdom.