Live by Zogby, die by Zogby
I’ve always thought the Zogby poll was questionable (and I’m not the only one). Over the past week, his tracking poll has become increasingly erratic. For example, today Zogby reports that Kerry leads in Wisconsin by 6%; but a couple days back he had Bush leading by 1% - huh? A Minnesota poll indicated a 7% swing overnight.
But, hey, if Zogby floats your boat, then fine. The Slate Election Scorecard in particular is beholden to the Zogby state polls. For example, here are the latest Wisconsin polls listed on Slate’s site sans the latest Zogby poll (all are split Bush-Kerry):
Badger Poll: 48-45
Strategic Vision: 49-46
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: 50-44
U of Minnesota: 48-47
But Zogby trumps all with a big 6% lead for John “Lambert Field” Kerry so Wisconsin is now a “blue” state. Well, today Zogby reports that Bush leads in Ohio by 5% (49-44%). Yet Slate still lists Ohio as a Kerry pickup.
Now I’m not saying that Slate is biased, (that's "biased biased BIASED") but I’d like to hear their argument why Hawaii is still a Kerry state when two separate polls from the Aloha state show Bush ahead. Would they do the same for a traditionally Republican state (like Ohio)? I didn’t think so. Let's see some objective flipping here.
Update: Bite on this, Slate: new Mason-Dixon polls. Bush is up by 2% (48-46) in Ohio.
Update again: And now Strategic Vision: Bush +1 in Ohio. (HT to Dusty)