Saturday, October 30, 2004

Live by Zogby, die by Zogby

I’ve always thought the Zogby poll was questionable (and I’m not the only one). Over the past week, his tracking poll has become increasingly erratic. For example, today Zogby reports that Kerry leads in Wisconsin by 6%; but a couple days back he had Bush leading by 1% - huh? A Minnesota poll indicated a 7% swing overnight.

But, hey, if Zogby floats your boat, then fine. The Slate Election Scorecard in particular is beholden to the Zogby state polls. For example, here are the latest Wisconsin polls listed on Slate’s site sans the latest Zogby poll (all are split Bush-Kerry):

ARG: 47-48
Badger Poll: 48-45
Strategic Vision: 49-46
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: 50-44
U of Minnesota: 48-47

But Zogby trumps all with a big 6% lead for John “Lambert Field” Kerry so Wisconsin is now a “blue” state. Well, today Zogby reports that Bush leads in Ohio by 5% (49-44%). Yet Slate still lists Ohio as a Kerry pickup.

Now I’m not saying that Slate is biased, (that's "biased biased BIASED") but I’d like to hear their argument why Hawaii is still a Kerry state when two separate polls from the Aloha state show Bush ahead. Would they do the same for a traditionally Republican state (like Ohio)? I didn’t think so. Let's see some objective flipping here.

Update: Bite on this, Slate: new Mason-Dixon polls. Bush is up by 2% (48-46) in Ohio.

Update again: And now Strategic Vision: Bush +1 in Ohio. (HT to Dusty)

377 comments:

1 – 200 of 377   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Slate unbiased? I know you are joking, but here is how they voted at Slate. I think the intern from Nebraska was the only Bush vote.

http://slate.msn.com/id/93134/

TSW said...

1 point lead, 1 point down ect:

I am amazed that the polls are so even and I am equally amazed that anyone could color a state red, pink, blue or baby blue based on a sample of 682.8 people (the .8 is the 15 year old that punched #2 for Bush on Rasmussen's robo poll).

Why do these pollers have so much sway. I bet if there were no polls, America might not be so divided. It is all mindboggling....

clt510 said...

Reiterating a comment I made here, I would tend to throw out any pollster who doesn't publish his methodology, has questionable practices (like adjusting the results when he doesn't like them) or whose results vary in an "unphysical" manner. Zogby definitely fits all three of these criteria, and I believe should be tossed out of any average with no further consideration.

Anonymous said...

TSW, it is really elementary statistical inference.

If you obtain a random sample of 600-1000 people from a population (say larger than 1 mil so you can ignore the finite population correction factor) and choose 90% or 95% confidence, then you get a confidence interval for your estimate of the percentage of the people voting for a particular candidate (population proportion) with an error bound of +/- 3-4% points.

Just solve the equation

width (one side) = z_(alpha/2) * 2 / sqrt(n)

for n to see how many samples you need for a given width you would like. z_(alpha/2) is the upper tail percentile corresponding to a 100*(1-alpha)% confidence.

All that being said ... clt510 still speaks the truth.

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How to Get Famous -- In only 90 Days!
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"I am indebted to the press of the United States for
almost every dollar which I possess..." -- P.T. Barnum,
1891

Charlie Stratton was a little boy who would not grow. He
was destined to be less than three feet tall.

His parents accepted the fact that he would never become
a full sized adult. The neighbors felt sorry for the nice
family and their midget. But no one saw an opportunity for
greatness. No one saw the potential for fame and fortune.
No one, that is, until one man came along in 1842 with an
eye for hidden possibilities. That man was P.T. Barnum.

Barnum taught the child to sing and dance. He taught him
to express himself, to accept how he looked, to feel good
about who he was. He also taught the boy how to charm and
entertain crowds. And he named the young prodigy a name
that still lives today: General Tom Thumb.

Years later, after Tom was rich and world famous, his
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"We always thought little Charlie was a nice boy but not
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become a celebrity until Barnum took him and Barnumized
him."

P.T. Barnum took many people who were talented but
unknown and made them rich and famous. While Jenny Lind
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Europe, few had any idea who she was in America. Yet
Barnum hired her, managed her, promoted her, and Jenny
Lind became so famous that 30,000 people met her ship
when it docked in New York in the mid 1800s. Again,
Barnum had practiced the art of "Barnumizing" someone.

And to prove that his techniques worked, when Lind
decided to save money and manage her own concerts
without Barnum's help, her crowds grew smaller. Lind
didn't get media attention. And she returned to Europe
without fanfare. Yet it was the same Jenny Lind that
the crowds had gone wild to see under Barnum's art!

That art is not lost today, of course. Throughout 1997
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Here you have a woman barely out of her teens, with
only one CD released at the time, making front page
headlines and cover stories on national magazines.
Last I heard she had been hired to write her
autobiography (!) and was paid more than a million
dollars for it. Yet Jewel is barely an adult! How is
this happening? Clearly, Jewel is being Barnumized.

And that's how anyone can become famous today. You
need someone skilled in the art of Barnumizing. There
should be a latent talent or trait that can be
publicized, of course, but even that can be gotten
around. Richard Branson, the tycoon founder of many
businesses, including Virgin Records and Virgin
Airlines, Barnumizes himself by creating balloon
flights around the world. Whether he actually succeeds
at the trip doesn't matter. His events bring himself
international publicity. And he is not promoting any
talent except maybe the bold desire to be famous.

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publicists since I began researching P.T. Barnum a
few years ago. Here's a taste of some of the people
I've discovered:

* Harry Reichenbach was an audacious silent movies
publicist who made people famous in the early 1900s.
In fact, his incredible creative ideas helped stop
World War I.

* Edward L. Bernays helped make such stars as the
singer Caruso famous. And he got American women to
smoke with a publicity event he helped orchestrate
in 1929.

* And publicists today continue to Barnumize people
like chicken soup authors Mark Victor Hanson and
Jack Canfield. One reason Deepak Chopra remains a
bestselling author is the publicist behind him:
Arielle Ford.

But let's forget actors and actresses, authors and
speakers, singers and celebrities for a moment. What
about the average person? What about you? Can you be
Barnumized? Can you be made famous?

Without hesitation, I say yes. The secret is in
hiring a publicist who knows how to find or create a
news worthy subject out of you or something you do.

There isn't any one way to fame that fits for all
people. Sometimes all you need is one wild event to
draw attention to everything else you do:

* Barnum once showed a preposterous "Fejee Mermaid."
The curious half-monkey-half fish increased his
ticket sales 33%.

* In our own century a circus once displayed a
"Unicorn." While everyone knows unicorns aren't
real, ticket sales increased 55%. Again, the one
publicity stunt drew crowds to see everything else
being offered.

But you don't have to be wild and crazy to get
attention. In an article I wrote titled "Hidden
Selling," I talk about the various people who are
getting rich and famous by sponsoring events that
serve a good cause. Bill Phillips, for example, is
selling people on the idea of getting fit. He gives
away his book, and a video, and holds yearly
contests. He donates his money to the Make-A-Wish
Foundation. All of this is making Bill
internationally famous. How does he make any money?
He sells nutritional supplements. Back this fact is
"hidden." What Bill is doing is getting fame, and
then using that fame to make money. Very, very
smart.

One of the easiest ways to begin to seek fame is to
write a book. You still have to promote the book, of
course, but as an author you have an excuse to get
publicity. That's what Evel Knievel wanted when he
called me. He wanted me to help him write his life
story. He knew that a book could bring him more
fame. (I turned him down.) Many other people know
this fact, too, from Donald Trump to J. Paul Getty
to Madonna, and that's why they write (or hire
someone to write) books for them.

By now you've heard the quote from Andy Warhol that
in the future everyone will be famous for 15 minutes.
My belief is that if you create fame for yourself
that sticks, that fame will be a credential you can
bank on for the rest of your life.

Take Evel Knievel. His publicity stunts Barnumized
him in the 1970s. Yet we still know his name today,
thirty years later. He wedged his name into public
awareness through his fame tactics. And he's still
cashing in on his name. In fact, his name is so
strong that it has helped launch the career of
another daredevil: Evel's own son, Robbie Knievel.

Most people know the name Tom Thumb today, as well.
Why? The fame Barnum created for his little friend
still lives. Fame can do that for you, too. It can
become a lasting advertisement for who you and what
you do. From then on, everything you touch will get
automatic attention. Tom Thumb used to sell toys
and other products. So did Evel Knievel. As a
result of their fame, these otherwise mediocre
products sold. The products weren't important, it
was the name associated with the products. The more
famous the name, the more easily the products sold.
That's why Pepsi hires the latest hot stars to
appear in their commercials. Their fame brings
favorable attention to Pepsi.

But what if you can't afford a publicist? Easy.
What you have to do is become your own publicist
and Barnumize yourself.

Let me explain:

A year or so ago I wrote a news release that helped
make Jeff DeLong---barely 28 years old---wealthy.
The headline read:

50 Ways to Leave Your Lover (or anyone else);
Unusual cards don't greet, say Hit The Streets

Paul Krupin of the ImediaFax news bureau sent it
out by fax and email. As a result, Jeff did twenty
radio interviews the day his release hit. The
Associated Press picked up the story at least twice
and spread the word to the media nationally. The
number of times the story was reprinted is
impossible to tally. But as a direct result, Jeff's
website sales blasted to $20,000 a week.
(A week!)

What made his news release so successful?

1. There was news here.

I didn't have to dig too hard to see that Jeff's
greeting cards were newsworthy in and of themselves.
(You send his c-ya cards out when you *end*
relationships.) Too many people send out news
releases without any news. They are thinly disguised
ads. Editors hate ads. They want NEWS.

2. We tied it to current news.

Valentine's Day was right around the corner. While
Jeff didn't want to tie his release to that event,
I knew that doing so would cause the media to grab
his release. It helped make his news relevant.
Whenever you can tie your product or service to
existing news, you up the odds in being used by the
media.

3. We distributed the release to select media.

Paul Krupin hand picked a list of media contacts.
What you send out has to match the interests of
those receiving it. Don't send artillery news to
an anti-gun newspaper.

You can get publicity for virtually any product or
service. The media is desperate for news. Provide it
and they'll advertise your business. But how do you
find the right news angle? There are at least three
ways: (1) Have news, (2) invent news, or (3) tie
your business to current news.

Jeff's release was an example of one and three. (His
cards were news, and we tied it to Valentine's Day,
which was current news.) Here's an example of number
two: Inventing news.

When Barry Michaels in Australia hired me to write a
release for his clothing store, I had to hunt to
find the news angle. I talked to him and learned that
because he was getting bogus orders online, he
started calling virtually *everyone* who contacted
him. This turned out to be a breakthrough. Customers
were in awe that a retailer in Australia would call
them. Not only did Barry stop the bogus orders, but
he increased his sales with this extra personal
service. So I wrote a news release with this
headline:

Retailer Finds Way to Turn Bogus Orders Into Profit;
Australia teaches the globe how to make money online

As a result, the Investors Business Daily called him.
Since that is a national publication, Barry's news
release will turn into *thousands* of dollars in free
publicity. Very nice.

Finally, let me tell you what I did a few months ago.
In mid-June I bought a mermaid. Yes, a mermaid. P.T.
Barnum had one and I figured it would be cool if I
did, too. It turned out to be a disappointment and I
felt like an idiot for getting it. But then I saw a
publicity opportunity. So I wrote a news release
(using method number two) that began with this
headline:

Barnum Expert Suckered Into Buying "Real" Mermaid;
Discovers curiosity as powerful marketing tool

The response stunned me. The editor of the American
Legal Association's newsletter asked if they could
run the story. Radio hosts wanted to interview me.
An A&E Biography TV show on Barnum plugged my book,
causing my book to sell out overnight. Ah, I love
this!

The point is, news angles are everywhere. Start to
think like a reporter, get creative, and plug you
or your business *within* your story. It's the key
secret to getting rich and famous today----within
only 90 days---and with or without a mermaid!

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Therapeutic Massage : You might be thinking what does getting a massage do for my health other than to make me feel good.

Eliminate Stress : Stress is a key contributor to poor health.

Young at Heart : Regardless of your age, if you start acting too old, you will actually not benefit yourself at all.

Body Fat : When you think about losing weight, more importantly than weight is the amount of fat you are carrying around.

Do Not Forget the Teeth : Often the care of teeth and gums is overlooked as potential health risks.

Be Careful with the Sun : Everyone loves basking in the warm sun, especially if it is lying on a beautiful sandy beach.

Give your Eyes a Rest : Most jobs in today's society require the use of a computer.

Breast Exams : Make sure you conduct regular breast examines.

Make Time for Intimacy : If you are married, be sure to make time for intimacy in your relationship.

Puffy Eyes : If you battle with puffy eyes or dark circles that make you look worn out, do not feel alone.

FITNESS : Fitness is just as important as health, and in reality, fitness correlates directly with our health.

Squats : Squats are excellent for glutes, hamstrings, quads, and calves.

Get to the Gym : Working out at home is a good option and for some people

Get Ready to Run : Before any workout, always warm up.

Resistance : The next time you work out try adding some resistance to your routine.

Be Realistic : It would be great to be able to jump right into a hard workout, feel great, and see instant results.

Bowling : Get some exercise by joining a bowling league.

Fitness and Food : Certain foods provide specific benefits for people who workout.

Diabetes and Exercise : Aerobic exercise can actually be beneficial for people with diabetes.

Check your Pulse : As you exercise, it is to your advantage to keep track of your pulse rate.

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