Disconnected from cell phones

I’ve always thought the argument that polls are inaccurate because they don’t reach cell phones to be spurious. The main point made by some is that younger Americans use cell phones and these are voters that would be supporting John Kerry, if the pollsters could only reach them.

First, I doubt younger Americans are going overwhelmingly for Kerry. Second, I’m inclined to believe that the number of Americans with only a cell phone and no land-line communication to be miniscule. Lastly, even if the “young liberal” myth were true, the voting participation rate among younger Americans is the lowest among all demographics, so it’s unlikely their vote will make much of a difference, cell phone or not.

The Man without Qualities convincingly discusses another form of phone technology that may be a much bigger factor in determining who responds to polls: caller-ID.