My two cents on Spain

Everybody seems to believe that the elections in Spain handed the terrorists a huge victory. I’m inclined to agree but remain unconvinced that the terrorist attacks in Madrid were a direct cause of the election results. The prevailing opinion seems to be that the ruling Popular Party had a slight lead and that the terrorist attacks shifted support to the anti-war Socialist Party. But a news search on the Spanish elections prior to the Madrid bombings indicates that the ruling Popular party might have been heading to defeat anyway: “Spain poll forecasts ruling party slippage.”

It’s my opinion that most Spaniards had their mind made up before the terrorist attacks and as a result very few changed their minds right before going to the polls three days later. (I may be completely wrong here, but bear with me for a moment). Sensing a defeat of the ruling party, the terrorists launched an attack. As the Aznar party is swept from power, the terrorists gain new stature as a toppler of pro-American governments. For lack of a better term, the terrorists “jumped on the bandwagon” of the Aznar defeat.

Think of the alternative. Assume that Aznar had a healthy lead going into the polls this past Sunday – would the terrorists have attacked? If they had, and Aznar held onto power, it would have been a repudiation of the terrorists and the anti-American left. Europe and the world would have rallied behind Aznar as he swore to continue the fight against terrorism at home and in Iraq.

I’m probably giving the terrorists much more credit for sophistication than they deserve, but I would be put into this position of rationalization if the Spanish voters had understood that there’s a war going on. Unfortunately, they’ve decided to capitulate and, as a result, they’ve emboldened terrorists everywhere.