Monday, November 03, 2003

Election predictions

The Louisiana governor's race is Saturday (Saturday?) so there are only three races to consider tomorrow: Kentucky Governor, Mississippi Governor, and Mayor of Philadelphia.

Kentucky: Ernie Fletcher over Ben Chandler easily for a GOP pickup.
Mississippi: I'm predicting that Haley Barbour will edge out Ronnie Musgrove just enough to avoid intervention from the state legislature (say, 51% to 48%). I think Barbour benefits from political connections and (as I've noted) as a Republican counterbalance to the Democratically-controlled Mississippi legislature.
Philadelphia: Democrat John Street will hold onto the mayor's office, despite an FBI probe, thereby establishing him as the Marion Barry of Philly. Watch for Terry McAuliffe to rush to Independence Hall to savor this minor victory.

(Note: if Street does lose Philly to Sam Katz, watch for a serious shakeup at DNC headquarters.)

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