California recall prediction

Well, the day has come, and it’s the duty of every good blogger to put their reputation on the line and predict the vote today. I’ll try to be brief:

First of all, the recall passes easily, and I’ll stick with the prediction of Real Clear Politics of 57% - 43% for a healthy 14% margin. My feeling is that Gray Davis is so unpopular that the “no” votes will be cast out of some sense of responsibility and not because Californians actually want to keep him in office. Plus, I’m imaging there’s a percentage of Hispanics voting “yes” on recall and “yes” on Bustamante to get a Hispanic into the governor’s mansion. Of this I’m sure: Gray Davis is toast.

On the replacement ballot, I believe Schwarzenegger will win, but the vote will be much closer. Bottom line: negative attacks – much as they are bemoaned – always work. Arnold will benefit from the “Ventura effect” and pull in a lot of young voters and I’m predicting that McClintock’s support will fade as Republican voters come home to their best chance to replace the Davis-Bustamante evil alliance. But Bustamante will also benefit from the same “come home” effect in this largely Democratic state. However, in the end, it won’t be enough and Arnold will pull out a slim, but clear, win: 44% – 40% – 12% – 4% (Schwarzenegger – Bustamante – McClintock – others). The tight win will be enhanced by the fact that Arnold will still receive more votes than Davis.