"Bitch be lyin'" is a winning message to run with in the last five weeks of the campaign.
Well, the evidence so far is...is there something below "underwhelming?"Oh, non-existent.
"Bitch be lyin'" is a winning message to run with in the last five weeks of the campaign.Yup.Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill Falls Behind GOP Opponent After Opposing Kavanaughhttps://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5baf9aecec212d33699b7e51/1538235118297/MOScout+Weekly+Poll-+Statewide+9.29.pdf
538.com includes that Remington poll in its Missouri Senate polling average. 538 also evaluates pollsters for house effects. They say Remington has a small but steady "leans Republican" effect. 538 evaluates the above 2% GOP lead as being a 0.6% lead for McCaskill. A little over two weeks ago, 538 took another poll's 3% lead for McCaskill's GOP opponent Josh Hawley and converted it to a 4.3% lead. Of the last twenty polls that were adjusted by 538, eleven of them were nudged in McCaskill's direction, while 9 were moved to Hawley's benefit.Today, SSRS (rated as an A-minus pollster by 538) released its newest poll of the Missouri race, which found McCaskill holding a 3% lead. SSRS is reliable enough that 538 considers the 3% margin as 3%.As of today, 538's Senate elections model (polling + fundraising + fundamentals + state voting history + more) sees Senator McCaskill as having a 61% chance of winning next month's election. Hawley has a 39% chance. The generic ballot, which has regularly been a solid indicator of the election day result, stands at an 8.6% margin for the Democrats. Last Wednesday, a day before the Ford-Kavanaugh hearing, the generic ballot stood at 8.4%. One day before the Feinstein/Ford letter became public, it was at 8.4%. That is a dizzying national response to the vicious smearing of Boofing Jesus.538 operates under the idea that averaging a whole bunch of polls is more accurate than reading everything into just one, and that fine-tuning the average in accordance with the varying contexts of the polls makes the result more accurate still. But that cocky tingle you got from one wonderful poll can always be a warm memory.
538: Senator McCaskill has a 61% chance of winning next month's election.Also 538 [November 8, 2016]:Hillary Clinton has a 71.4% chance of winning the presidency.
Right. 538 presents polls honestly, and you don't.
You can't be blamed for shifting the focus from accuracy to honesty.
Just as a thought experiment, let's pretend you're not a troll. In 2016, 538.com calculated that Hillary Clinton had an 81.4% chance of winning the popular vote, but only a 71.4% chance of winning the electoral college - and a 10.5% chance of winning the popular vote while losing the election. Refresh my memory?538 has been one of the most accurate sources of polling analysis, cycle after cycle, and they are transparent about their methods and choices. Whereas a poll rings your bell like Pavlov and makes you whoop "Ha ha, this one link says McCaskill is losing," and then follow it up with the devastating retort "Ha ha, a 3-1 longshot won." To bring it all back home, "Bitch be lyin'" PLUS a hilarious stage impression of said lyin' bitch is a winning message to run with in the last five weeks of the campaign.
538.com calculated that Hillary Clinton had ... a 10.5% chance of winning the popular vote while losing the election. Refresh my memory?Nate called it! I'm a believer!
CNN: McCaskill 47%, Hawley 44%WOOOO YES, it's in the bag for Claire now, with a 6% swing post-Kavanaugh!!! My sincere understanding of this one poll says so.Wait, oops, I may have been hasty. Fox News: McCaskill 46%, Hawley 46%Okay, forget the CNN poll. I guess McCaskill and Hawley'll have to share an office.
That's not the kind of attitude Nate wants to see in his devotees.
BREAKING: A guy I know has three cats and he says two of them looked up when he said the word "Hawley." So the seat is lost.
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