Tomorrow there are some off-year elections and it looks like the Virginia governor's race and NY-23 are in the bag. The only contest left is New Jersey and the fight between incumbent governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie. This campaign has been deadlocked for weeks. However, I think Christie will find a new home in Trenton.
First of all, I'm not some partisan optimist since I called the Presidential election for Obama a month before the November vote. But there are a couple of reasons why I can't see Corzine winning. First of all, he's had consistently high disapproval ratings for months. Second, whatever advantage he had as a trader at Goldman Sachs has faded in the financial meltdown. Third, all the enthusiasm now seems to be on Christie's side meaning that - even with the voter identification mismatch - there will be a substantial vote for him in this deep-blue state.
But, perhaps most importantly, Jon Corzine is just a bad governor. New Jersey has held the bottom spot for the worst state in America to do business thanks to sky-high property and business taxes. Unemployment in the Garden State is at 9.7%, if you believe the Corzine spinners. It helps to explain why people are trying to get the heck out of New Jersey (like I did 18 years ago).
So let's apply Occam's razor: Corzine is a poor leader who is unpopular because taxes are high. Christie offers a new direction and all the enthusiasm is on his side; this might explain the desperate last-minute robocalls for independent Daggett, paid for by the Democrats.
Prediction: Chris Christie wins by a slim margin, say 52%-48%.
Update - Dang it, I forgot about Daggett. Let's say 47-45-8%.
4 comments:
This post contains two online article links. Eek! Run, Brian, run!
The somewhat liberal Fivethirtyeight.com rates Christie a 4:3 favorite:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/2009-elections-preview-new-jersey.html#comments
Why is Corzine in trouble? According to this website:
New Jersey has held the bottom spot for the worst state in America to do business thanks to sky-high property and business taxes... It helps to explain why people are trying to get the heck out of New Jersey (like I did 18 years ago).
The New York Post recently reported on the alleged phenomenon of former New Yorkers fleeing to other parts of the U.S. to escape the crippling local tax burden. The article calls the exodus "the biggest out-of-state migration in the country."
The second most popular destination for these fed-up, bled-dry tax revolters? New Jersey.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tax_refugees_staging_escape_from_qb4pItQ71UXIc0i6cd3UpK
So you ran screaming from New Jersey to....Massachusettes?
All the "State Hemorrhaging Population Because of Liberal Politics!" stories are strained wishmaking.
Back to Christie/Corzine. Here is fivethirtyeight.com again, explaining why the NJ (and VA) governor races tell us almost nothing predictive about 2010 or 2012.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/gubernatorial-races-poor-yardstick.html#comments
Yeah, well, I needed a job. It's tough here in Western Mass now - everything's in Boston.
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