Always switch cases - Tonight on "Deal or No Deal" the overly-excitable contestant managed to get down to her chosen case and a single case on stage. One held $5000 and the other had the million-dollar prize; she chose "No Deal."
But before they opened the woman's briefcase, Howie offered her to switch her case with the one remaining unopened case. Foolishly, she stuck with her original case. But if she understood the Monty Hall problem, she would have known that her original case had only a one-in-26 chance of having the million dollars while the case on stage had an excellent 24-in-25 probability of having the top prize.
Hard to believe? Nope, simple math.
The final word - Dave at Hedgehog Report: "I hope to some day be in a position in my life where I could turn down a guaranteed $530,000 for at best a 50/50 chance at $1,000,000."