49 states

One month ago, in the WashPost:

By historical standards, Kerry's post-convention bounce is modest, at best -- a fact that set off a debate between the candidates' campaign advisers. The Bush team said Kerry's failure to gain more significant ground from his national convention puts him at a serious disadvantage for the fall, while Kerry advisers said the electorate is already so polarized and partisans so energized that there was far less chance for a big bounce this year.

Time magazine today – “Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead”

For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.

Meanwhile, this Gallup study indicates that the last time a candidate left his convention with no bounce, followed by his opponent coming out of his convention with a significant bounce was….1972.

Update: For the record, this looks like a 9-point bounce based on the Time magazine poll done right before the convention.

Even more: Q and O has a very detailed analysis of the Time poll.