Friday, April 09, 2010

Wave election - The conservative-leaning Election Projection currently forecasts the GOP pickup in the 2010 House election at 19 seats. But Nate Silver uses a regression model based on polling and predicts a 51 seat pickup for the Republicans with a potential high of 79 seats. Buh-bye Nancy.
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4 comments:

  1. Anonymous3:10 PM

    Silver doesn't "predict" that. The two paragraphs immediately following the 51-seat number explicitly state his qualifiers. Several of the posters are teasing Silver about the breadth of his "15-to-70-seat pickup" range.

    Wave elections rarely happen to the benefit of either splintered or unpopular parties, and the GOP is currently both. There's still a ways to go before the customary midterm flip morphs into "1994: the even bigger sequel."

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  2. Vermont Woodchuck4:53 PM

    The Bunghole-in Chief is working hard to make the poll come true.

    He'll succeed.

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  3. Anonymous8:04 PM

    We are living in historic times:

    Electing the first black president - historic

    Deficits and debt - historic

    Disapproval of congress and politics - historic

    Fall in president's popularity - historic

    Independents running away from Dems by margins that are - historic

    (I could go on...)

    Why wouldn't the mid-terms be historic?

    Here's my prediction:

    Dems will lose

    - over 80 House seats

    - 11-14 Senate seats

    - net 10-12 state governorships

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  4. I predict Obama's two legs will turn Republican, too.9:28 PM

    Fall in president's popularity - historic

    Hear that, 92% to 23%? It took a whole year, but you're finally in the clear!

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