Monday, February 02, 2004

Howard Dean: Crazy like a fox?

The conventional wisdom is that Howard Dean’s campaign is irrelevant and his shift to the February 7th primary states such as Michigan and Wisconsin is a desperate “Hail Mary” gambit. But maybe Dean is giving the Democratic field some space (temporal and geographic) to see if a Kerry backlash sends his adoring fans back into Howard’s arms. Think of it as “Dated Dean, Married Kerry, became disenchanted, looked up Dean’s number again.”

There’s clearly signs that Kerry is getting the Dean-type scrutiny now – see Howard Kurtz’s “Is Kerry next?” – and a mini-backlash is building. In the expectations game, Kerry’s momentum could be slowed if he loses Oklahoma to Clark and South Carolina to Edwards. If the second-guessing reaches a crescendo, Governor Dean may garner a second look.

I’m not saying it’s likely: just possible. Keep up the pressure, Mickey!

Extra - Via Duck Season, David Brooks says that “electability” trumps all: “Now Kerry is riding this great wave of electability, and he has a huge seething army of fanatical Kerry supporters who will follow him to the death, unless, of course, he stumbles — in which case they will abandon him faster than you can say "electability."”

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