I voted, for what that's worth in The People's Republic of Massachusetts.
This is a crazy year, so who knows what's going to happen. But the Real Clear Politics average shows that Biden has a +2.3% advantage in the battleground states. Just for comparison, Hillary went into election day with a +1.1% advantage over Trump.
In 2016, Hillary had a +6.5% aggregate lead in Wisconsin; Biden has a +6.7% lead. Hillary led by +1.9% in Pennsylvania; Biden leads by 1.2%.
So if we see a repeat of the "shy Trump" voter surge, it could be deja vu all over again.
The most recent date that Donald Trump led Joe Biden in each state's 538 polling average:
ReplyDeleteTexas: today
Ohio: today
Iowa: today
Georgia: September 30
Wisconsin: April 14
Florida: April 3
Arizona: March 7
Pennsylvania: never
Michigan: never
North Carolina: never
Minnesota: never
Nevada: never
New Hampshire: never
RCP ignores more than two-thirds of the pollsters, but making their inner circle are right-leaning Rasmussen and no-you-can't-see-our-crosstabs Trafalgar.
538 includes all the pollsters. And thus five of RCP's six battleground states are above RCP's purported 2.3% average battleground advantage:
Wisconsin 8.4, Michigan 7.9, Pennsylvania 4.7, Florida 2.5, North Carolina 1.8, Arizona 2.6
Why Real Clear Politics doesn't also characterize Georgia (Biden by 1.2), Texas (Trump by 1.1), Iowa (Trump by 1.3), Ohio (Trump by 0.8) and others as "battleground states" is unexplained.
Here's Muh poll: Down the stretch, Trump was holding several rallies a day, each with tens of thousands of people. Meanwhile Biden was holding several rallies a week, each with tens of people.
ReplyDeleteNate Silver is taking so much shit for his shitty polls he is quoted saying today:
ReplyDelete"F--- you, we did a good job."
A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
ReplyDeleteAm so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542